Steelers vs. Browns Best Bets for Thursday Night Football Week 3 (Can Cleveland Actually Put a Game Away?)
The last time the Cleveland Browns stepped on their home turf, they somehow found a way to lose a 13-point lead in the final 82 seconds against the New York Jets.
Via ESPN Stats and Info, it had been more than 20 years since a team failed to win a game in which they led by 13 points or more in the final two minutes.
The Browns blew a 13 point lead in the final 1:22 to lose to the Jets 31-30.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 18, 2022
NFL teams had won the last 2,229 consecutive games when leading by at least 13 points in the final 2 minutes.
The last team to blow such a lead? The Browns in week 9 of the 2001 season vs the Bears. pic.twitter.com/x0PfP27auh
Now, the Browns start off Week 3 back at home against their division rival Pittsburgh Steelers. After opening as 2.5-point favorites, the line has moved in favor of the Browns throughout the week. At one point, the number was as high as 5.5 before dropping back to 4.
Here are the latest odds for Thursday night.
Steelers vs. Browns Odds, Spread and Total
Over at BetSided, we've already put together a full guide to betting on Thursday Night Football, complete with our favorite picks, prop bets, anytime touchdown scorers, same game parlay plays and more.
Here are our best bets for tonight's matchup:
Thursday Night Football Best Bets for Steelers vs. Browns
- Browns -4 (-110)
- Mitch Trubisky OVER 19.5 Passing Completions (-112)
- Najee Harris Anytime TD Scorer (+145)
Browns -4 (-110)
I'm going to fade the Steelers until oddsmakers set their lines appropriately for what they are; a bad football team.
The Steelers rank 30th in the NFL this season in yards per play at 4.3. Their entire offense has been anemic, relying on turnovers and penalties to gain the majority of their yards. Meanwhile, Cleveland has been averaging 5.5 yards per play, finding a lot more success on offense.
Pittsburgh's defense is a shell of itself without TJ Watt in the lineup. They went from getting seven sacks in Week 1 with Watt in the lineup, to zero sacks last week. Not to mention, they allowed the Patriots imploding offense to average 7.2 yards per pass attempt in Week 2.
It may feel wrong to lay the points with the Browns, but the Steelers can only hide their poor play for so long. Cleveland to cover is my best bet for Thursday Night Football. -- Iain MacMillan
Mitch Trubisky OVER 19.5 Passing Completions (-122)
It’s never a great feeling to back Trubisky passing props, but we at least know the volume will be there.
The Steelers let Trubisky throw 38 and 33 times during the first two weeks, and he’s gotten 21 completions in both games. Cleveland hasn't been particularly effective vs. the pass, allowing the eighth-most yards in the NFL, as well as 43 completions to Joe Flacco and Baker Mayfield.
The Steelers will be forced to throw, and Mitch's prop number is set too low, even for him. -- Peter Dewey
Najee Harris Anytime TD Scorer (+145)
Harris is off to a rough first two weeks this season, but has still managed to score. He’s averaging 16 carries a game right now,. going against a team that just allowed 31 points at home, 13-plus in the final 1:22.
Even with an excellent run defense, the Browns are 23rd in the league in allowing rushing touchdowns. Harris is still the primary back and number one option near the goal line, and remains easier to trust than Trubisky. -- Donnavan Smoot