Steelers vs. Browns Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for NFL Week 3 (Cleveland Wins Week 3 in Trenches)

Cleveland Browns Defensive End Myles Garrett (95)
Cleveland Browns Defensive End Myles Garrett (95) / Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns obviously have a lot of history, but particularly on Thursday Night Football without Ben Roethlisberger behind center. The last time we saw that can be summed up by only one tweet. 

They often say in an AFC North rivalry you can throw out the record books, but in case you’re wondering, both teams are 1-1 after tough Week 2 losses, but have a chance to control a struggling division. 

Steelers vs. Browns Odds, Spread and Total

Cleveland and Pittsburgh Betting Trends 

  • Pittsburgh is 1-0-1 ATS this year
  • Cleveland is 1-1 ATS this year
  • Mike Tomlin is 32-22-2 ATS as a road underdog in his coaching career
  • The OVER is 2-0 in Cleveland’s two games this season
  • The UNDER is 2-0 in the Steelers’ two games this season

Steelers vs. Browns Prediction and Pick

This was an ugly weekend for the AFC North. The Cincinnati Bengals lost to the Dallas Cowboys without Dak Prescott and continue to get Joe Burrow killed. The Baltimore Ravens gave up four touchdowns in the fourth quarter and blew a massive lead.

The Browns blew a 13-point lead with under two minutes left to Joe Flacco. And the Steelers offense is just painful to watch. 

Somehow, the Steelers are leading the division at 1-1 with two offensive touchdowns scored through two weeks. The offensive line actually looked better this week against New England, but Najee Harris did not look 100%, Mitch Trubisky threw a bone-headed interception, and Matt Canada refused to call downfield passes. 

On the other side of the ball, the defense played pretty well and Minkah Fitzpatrick had another interception, but they really missed TJ Watt up front. They generated almost no pressure, had zero sacks, and couldn’t stop the run down the stretch. 

All the Browns want to do is run the ball. Nick Chubb had 87 yards on 17 carries and three touchdowns against New York in Week 2. I don’t think the Steelers front will be able to stop Chubb and Kareem Hunt out of the backfield, as their linebackers did not tackle well in Week 2. 

Dan Moore Jr. is the left tackle for the Steelers and he has a 78.7 PFF pass blocking grade this season. He had some success dealing with Myles Garrett a year ago, but I don’t trust the Steelers offensive line to hold up. Pittsburgh can’t generate pressure and Cleveland will, in a game that will almost certainly swing on turnovers it looks like it’s advantage Cleveland. 

I can never take this because I refuse to bet against my team, but Browns -4.5 would be the play. I think after this one, Steelers fans will be dying to see Kenny Pickett out on the field.

Lean: Browns -4.5 (-108)

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