Steelers vs. Chiefs Prediction, Odds, Against Spread and Over/Under for AFC Wild Card Round

The Kansas City Chiefs are set to play host to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Wild Card round on Sunday.

The Chiefs come in winners of 9 of their last 10 games while the Steelers miraculously made the postseason at 9-7-1 after beating the Baltimore Ravens in Week 18 as well as some other help along the way.

This is a historic spread for wild card weekend, which we will dive into below, but first let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook.

Steelers vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

Steelers: +13 (-115)
Chiefs: -13 (-105)

Moneyline:

Steelers: +500
Chiefs: -700

Total: 46.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Chiefs vs. Steelers Betting Trends

Chiefs are 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games
Chiefs are 5-3 ATS with Patrick Mahomes as QB in the postseason
The Steelers are 12-10 ATS in the postseason with Ben Roethlisberger as QB
Mike Tomlin's Steelers are 47-25-3 ATS as an underdog

Steelers vs. Chiefs Prediction and Pick

I know that many are going to side with Tomlin as an underdog, but there's a reason this spread is so high. The Chiefs dismantled the Steelers in Week 16 despite being shorthanded due to COVID-19 Protocols, 36-10.

Pitt opes as 12.5 point dogs in KC. This is highest wildcard spread ever. Chi closed 11 in New Orleans last year. There have been 10 double digit dogs in wildcard history and only 2 have covered. In case someone’s reason for taking Pitt might be “its too many pts in a playoff gm”
— TA (@ClevTA) January 10, 2022

Ben Roethlisberger is going to struggle against the Chiefs pass rush that is top 10 in both blitz and pressure rate this season.

Meanwhile, Kansas City should find a ton of success against a middling Steelers defense that is 16th in EPA/Play. While the team has played in slugfests of late, look at the offenses they have beaten, the broken down Ravens and Browns as well as the Titans, who turned it over four times in the loss at Pittsburgh.

Patrick Mahomes had little issue carving up a Steelers defense a few weeks back, completing 23 of 30 passes for 258 yards and three touchdowns. There's little evidence that the Steelers are going to keep up with this high octane offense.

The Chiefs are in prime position to advance and win in a big way against a lucky Steelers team. It's a feel good story that Pittsburgh made the postseason in Big Ben's swan song, but the road stops here.

PICK: Chiefs -13

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