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Steelers vs. Chiefs Updated Odds and Prediction: What Bettors Need to Know for AFC Wild Card Weekend

By Matt De Saro

The Pittsburgh Steelers are huge underdogs in the first round of the playoffs against the KC Chiefs at Arrowhead.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are huge underdogs in the first round of the playoffs against the KC Chiefs at Arrowhead. / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
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The Pittsburgh Steelers are among the more unlikely playoff teams to be suiting up this weekend. They have a very tough game ahead at Arrowhead Stadium against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night. The Steelers needed a miracle to make the playoffs in the first place. Is there any luck left for them to make a run in Big Ben’s final season? As the biggest underdogs of the first round, the oddsmakers aren’t giving them much of a chance. 

On the flip side, the Chiefs are back in the playoffs but do not look like the word enders of the season’s past. They did end the season 9-1 but did not dominate lesser teams and had several close calls. The last two weeks they lost outright to the Bengals and had a near-miss against the Denver Broncos to close out the season.

Here are the odds for this, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Steelers vs. Chiefs Updated Odds, Spread, and Total

Spread:

  • Steelers: +12.5 (-110) / Opened +13
  • Chiefs: -12.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Steelers: +500
  • Chiefs: -700

Total:

  • 46 (Over -110/Under -110) / Opened 46.5

Steelers vs. Chiefs Betting Trends

  • The Steelers are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games against the Chiefs. 
  • The Steelers are 6-2 straight up (SU) in their last eight games against the Chiefs. 
  • The Steelers are 1-4 SU in their last five road games. 
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in the Steelers' last five road games against the Chiefs. 
  • The Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the AFC. 
  • The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games. 
  • The UNDER is 6-3 in the Chiefs’ last nine games. 
  • The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight games between these two teams. 

Steelers vs. Chiefs Prediction and Pick

While the Chiefs have the bulk of the offensive weapons in this game, the Steelers are not without ways to fight back.

Diontae Johnson has been a revelation for the Steelers with 107 receptions for 1,161 yards and eight touchdowns. He has converted 59 first downs, is averaging 10.9 yards per catch, and has at least five catches in 15 of 16 games. Between Johnson and Chase Claypool, Big Ben has two future stars who can go off against even the best defenses.

To be clear, the Chiefs do not have a particularly good passing defense and will struggle to contain the two speedsters. Opponents are averaging 251.4 yards per game passing on the Cheifs which ranks them 27th in the NFL. The Chiefs are also bad at getting to the QB and have one of the worst sack percentages in the league at 4.84. Therefore, the less-than-mobile Big Ben won't be running for his life too much. 

The Chiefs are one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl for a reason and I would be absolutely shocked if they were upset in this game. The offense is averaging 28.2 points and 368.8 yards per game. They lead the NFL in third-down conversions, fourth-down conversions and are scoring more than 60 percent of the time in the red zone. 

The spread here is just a little too long for where I see these two teams. The Chiefs are many betters, sure. But lost to a worse team two weeks ago and barely avoided a loss to the Broncos last weekend.

So, they are Super Bowl contenders, sure, but they are also vulnerable on defense. Based on their performance over the last couple of weeks, I think the Steelers have a good chance to make a game of this and come away with a cover. 

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +12.5 (-110)

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