Steelers vs. Dolphins Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for NFL Week 7

Mitch Trubisky (10) of the Pittsburgh Steelers
Mitch Trubisky (10) of the Pittsburgh Steelers / Michael Longo/For USA Today Network /

The Miami Dolphins looked like they were the team to beat in the AFC with Tua Tagovailoa. However, since Tua’s injury, the Dolphins are 0-3.

Miami is coming off a loss to the Vikings last week under tough circumstances with Skylar Thompson set to make his pro debut, being injured early and Teddy Bridgewater coming back in. Now, the Dolphins host the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are off one of the surprise victories of the season, beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-18 to improve to 2-4.

After starting Kenny Pickett for two straight games, it may be Mitchell Trubisky's time again as Pickett is dealing with a concussion.

It looks like Tagovailoa will be returning to the field on Sunday Night Football after his scary concussion, so let’s check out the odds for this one. 

Steelers vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread and Total

Miami and Pittsburgh Betting Trends

  • Miami is 3-3 ATS
  • Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 ATS
  • Both teams have gone 4-2 to the under in their six games
  • Steelers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four vs. AFC
  • Miami is 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games in October
  • Pittsburgh is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win ATS

Steelers vs. Dolphins Prediction and Pick

That last trend I mention above is particularly interesting when thinking about a Mike Tomlin team.

He gets them up for big games, especially after a loss. But even his good teams tend to fall flat after a win. Beating Tom Brady as a huge home underdog was a classic Mike Tomlin win, but we’ve also seen some classic Mike Tomlin losses this year. It’ll be interesting to see which Tomlin team we get in Week 7. 

A big piece of which team we see is which quarterback the Steelers play in Week 7. Pickett was lost to a concussion and is currently in concussion protocol. That means if it's not Pickett, it’ll be Trubisky and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Trubisky played fantastic down the stretch with multiple third and long completions to Chase Claypool that closed out the game. Claypool had his best game since his rookie year with seven catches for 96 yards and a touchdown. 

The most surprising thing was that Trubisky played loose and threw the ball to the middle of the field, something both he and Matt Canada were criticized for all year. Trubisky finished the game 9-for-12 for 144 yards and a touchdown. He had an average depth of target (aDot) of 10.6 which is only slightly higher than his year long average, but much higher than Pickett’s (7.9). While Pickett is the future of the organization, Trubisky may still be the best short term option.

The even bigger problem is that the Steelers defense will be hard pressed to replicate their performance against Tampa Bay. They held Mike Evans to four catches for 42 yards without their top three cornerbacks and Minkah Fitzpatrick on the field. If Tua does indeed come back and he has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the field, then the Steelers will have no answer for that speed. 

The Dolphins averaged 27.6 in their first three games of the year with Tua at QB, and 16 points in their next three games without him. 27.6 points per game would be the third best offense in the AFC, just behind the Chiefs and Bills. The Steelers are averaging 16.2 points per game, no matter their quarterback. Unless Trubisky continues to play out of his mind then Pittsburgh won’t be able to keep pace on Sunday night. I like Miami to roll.

Pick: Dolphins -7 (-108)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change