Sun vs. Mercury prediction and odds for Tuesday, July 18 (Trust Sun to win fourth straight)

The Connecticut Sun are tied atop the Eastern Conference with the New York Liberty, and they have an easy road matchup out of the All-Star break against the 4-15 Phoenix Mercury. 

Diana Taurasi, Brittney Griner and the Mercury have had a disastrous season, ranking dead last in net and defensive rating while clocking in at 10th in offensive rating. 

The Sun – despite losing Brionna Jones (Achilles) for the season – have proven that they can compete with the best teams in the league, and could be a sneaky Finals pick if Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner continue to play at a high level. 

Phoenix needs to turn things around quickly if it wants any shot at pushing for a playoff spot, but can it do so against CT? 

Here are the odds and my best bet for this contest: 

Sun vs. Mercury odds, spread and total

Sun vs. Mercury prediction and pick

I simply can’t trust this Mercury team, even at home, to cover the spread. They are just 5-14 ATS on the season, and Taurasi has really struggled scoring the ball efficiently in 2023. 

That’s going to be an issue against a Sun team that ranks third in the league in net, offensive and defensive rating this season. 

While the Liberty and Las Vegas Aces are the clear-cut favorites in 2023, Connecticut is in the mix as well. That’s much more than what Phoenix can say this season. 

Connecticut has done a solid job against the spread on the road (6-3) this season, and the team is 9-4 against the spread when favored. 

If the Mercury continue to struggle on defense, I don’t think they have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Sun team, especially without Skylar Diggins-Smith (maternity leave). 

Trust Connecticut to keep things rolling out of the All-Star break.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.