The Connecticut Sun are tied atop the Eastern Conference with the New York Liberty, and they have an easy road matchup out of the All-Star break against the 4-15 Phoenix Mercury.
Diana Taurasi, Brittney Griner and the Mercury have had a disastrous season, ranking dead last in net and defensive rating while clocking in at 10th in offensive rating.
The Sun – despite losing Brionna Jones (Achilles) for the season – have proven that they can compete with the best teams in the league, and could be a sneaky Finals pick if Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner continue to play at a high level.
Phoenix needs to turn things around quickly if it wants any shot at pushing for a playoff spot, but can it do so against CT?
Here are the odds and my best bet for this contest:
Sun vs. Mercury odds, spread and total
Sun vs. Mercury prediction and pick
I simply can’t trust this Mercury team, even at home, to cover the spread. They are just 5-14 ATS on the season, and Taurasi has really struggled scoring the ball efficiently in 2023.
That’s going to be an issue against a Sun team that ranks third in the league in net, offensive and defensive rating this season.
While the Liberty and Las Vegas Aces are the clear-cut favorites in 2023, Connecticut is in the mix as well. That’s much more than what Phoenix can say this season.
Connecticut has done a solid job against the spread on the road (6-3) this season, and the team is 9-4 against the spread when favored.
If the Mercury continue to struggle on defense, I don’t think they have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Sun team, especially without Skylar Diggins-Smith (maternity leave).
Trust Connecticut to keep things rolling out of the All-Star break.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.