Sun vs. Sky Prediction and Odds for WNBA Playoff Semifinals Game 1 (Can Connecticut Finally Get a Win vs. Chicago?)

The Connecticut Sun finished the 2022 WNBA regular season with some of the best overall numbers and metrics in the league, but the Chicago Sky seemingly have their number whenever both teams get together.

Chicago went 4-0 this season against Connecticut, winning the last two games by just three points. The average spread this year has been -4, with Chicago going 3-1 against the number; failing to cover in their final game of the season in a 94-91 home victory.

Both teams lost a matchup as favorites in surprising fashion at home during the first round of the postseason. Can Connecticut, now the underdog in the series return the favor to Chicago?

Let's take a look at the Game 1 odds over at WynnBET Sportsbook:

Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Odds, Spread and Total

SPREAD:

• Sun +3.5 (-110)
• Sky -3.5 (-110)

MONEYLINE:

• Sun +140
• Sky -170

TOTAL:

• 165.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Prediction and Pick

Despite the Sky's 4-0 record vs. the Sun, there's not much separation between these two teams in trying to find a traditional betting angle.

Every time these two teams play, it constantly seems to go down to the wire before Chicago finds a way to close it out.

Same with the total. While the OVER has hit in the last three games, I expect the pace to slow down more in the second half, especially if the game gets close.

So what's the play? For me, it's the bread and butter of the Sky: first quarters.

In all three games vs. the Liberty to start the playoffs, Chicago outscored New York by 30 total points across the series. Against Connecticut in four games? Chicago had a red-hot offensive rating of 135.4 in the first quarter, while also playing smothering defense with a defensive rating of 77.8. As for Connecticut, it was the complete opposite. They were -11 in first quarters vs. the Sky this year.

I'll back Chicago at home early and often, likely sprinkling on some alternate lines at plus-odds as well.

PICK: Sky 1Q -1 (-115) | LEAN: Sky 1Q -2 (+100) and Sky 1Q -3 (+215)

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