Sunday Morning Moneyline: Best NFL Moneyline Picks for Week 17

Minnesota Vikings running back Alexander Mattison (2) dives forward for extra yardage against the
Minnesota Vikings running back Alexander Mattison (2) dives forward for extra yardage against the / Tork Mason / USA TODAY NETWORK

It's now or never for plenty of NFL teams who are aiming to secure a spot in the postseason, or at least keep their playoff hopes alive, in Week 17 of the 2023 season.

With playoffs on the line, you may be one of those people who want to forget about point spreads and just worry about who's going to win and lose. If that's you, you've come to the right place because this article is all about winners, point spreads can stand on the sideline for now.

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Best NFL Moneyline Picks for Week 17

  • Falcons +132 vs. Bears
  • Titans +176 vs. Texans
  • Vikings -110 vs. Packers

Falcons vs. Bears prediction and pick

43.77% of the Bears' offensive yards come from running the football which is the second highest mark in the league. Only the Ravens has a higher percentage of their yards come from the run game, so the time that you want to bet against the Bears is when they face a team that can stop the run.

Atlanta can do exactly that.

The Falcons lead the NFL in opponent rush EPA while also ranking ninth in both opponent rush success rate and opponent yards per carry, allowing only 3.9 yards per rush. That means the Bears will have to go to the air to get their offense going, and I don't foresee them having much success with that.

Taylor Heinicke gave the Falcons' offense a spark in Week 16, completing 23-of-33 passes for 229 yards and a touchdown. Let's remember this Falcons team is arguably a lot better than their record indicates, ranking 11th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +0.2 whereas the Bears rank 19th at -0.2.

I'll take a shot on the Falcons to win this game outright.

Pick: Falcons ML

Titans vs. Texans prediction and pick

C.J. Stroud is back in the lineup for the Texans this week, but even if he is, you have to wonder how effective he'll be coming off a concussion that kept him in the protocol for an extended period. Things get crazy in the AFC South and I'll make the Titans my upset pick of the week.

Despite already being eliminated from the playoffs, we know any team coached by Mike Vrabel isn't going to go quietly into that good night. They fought the Seahawks to the bitter end in Week 16 and now have a chance to play spoiler against the Texans.

There's one key area we should keep an eye on in this game: the Titans' red zone defense. They currently have the third-best red zone defense in the NFL, allowing teams to score a touchdown on just 38.18% of red zone trips against them. If they can force the Texans to kick field goals instead of scoring touchdowns, they will stay in this game.

Pick: Titans ML

Packers vs. Vikings prediction and pick

The Green Bay Packers have played some atrocious football lately. In fact, over their last three games, they're dead last in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at -1.4. That should be concerning for a team that's doing it's best to make the playoffs.

Their defense has been especially bad, ranking 29th in opponent EPA and 28th in opponent success rate since Week 12 this season. The Vikings' defense has gone in the opposite direction and has turned into a top-10 defense in the second half of the season.

Let's also note that despite losing to the Lions last week, the Vikings' offense gained a blistering 7.6 yards per play in that game. Unfortunately, four interceptions killed their chances of winning. But, if they can limit the turnovers, they have a chance of annihilating this Packers defense.

I'll take the Vikings to win this game at home on Sunday Night Football.

Pick: Vikings ML

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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