Super Bowl LVIII Preview Part II (Best Bets for Spread, Side, and Longshot Player Prop)
Do postseason statistics give us further insight as to who wins the game?
By Todd Moser
In Part I of my Super Bowl (SB) preview, I reviewed SB 54 between the Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers and the changes the teams had made since that game four years ago to see if there was any betting value. I gave the edge to KC on those factors.
For Part II, let’s look more closely at postseason offensive and defensive stats for the two combatants.
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Postseason Head-to-Head Defensive Statistics for 49ers vs. Chiefs
CATEGORY | KC | SF |
|---|---|---|
Points allowed per game | 14 | 26 |
Yards allowed per game | 323 | 386 |
Yards allowed per play | 4.8 | 5.1 |
Passing yards per game | 210 | 227 |
Pass completion % | 60.5 | 65.5 |
Rushing yards per game | 113 | 164 |
Rushing yards per carry | 4.6 | 5.8 |
3rd down conversion % | 36.0 | 42.1 |
Red zone scoring % | 50.9 | 54.7 |
Postseason Head-to-Head Offensive Statistics for 49ers vs. Chiefs
CATEGORY | KC | SF |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 23 | 29 |
Yards per game | 363 | 385 |
Yards per play | 5.5 | 6.5 |
Passing yards per game | 236 | 252 |
Rushing yards per game | 127 | 133 |
Rushing yards per carry | 4.2 | 4.7 |
3rd down conversion % | 43.0 | 48.8 |
Red zone conversion % | 52.7 | 66.5 |
Analysis: It’s pretty clear that the 49ers offense has performed better than the Chiefs’ offense, but the Chiefs defense has been more dominant than the 49ers defense. While the offensive stats are fairly close, there is much more separation on the defensive side for KC.
Who have they played? Kansas City played the MiamiDolphins, Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens. The 49ers played the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions.
If you just compare the last two games, I think the Chiefs have played the tougher of the competition especially from a defensive perspective AND they played their games on the road. One would think the offense would be more difficult to come by on the road in the playoffs.
KC has played progressively better and is a team on the upswing while the 49ers are down from their peak regular season and have not impressed during the playoffs.
Extra point. I said this last time, but it’s important. Should the game come down to a field goal attempt, I trust Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker to make a winning kick over 49ers’ rookie kicker Jake Moody.
Best Bets and Score Prediction
Spread: Chiefs +2
Side: Chiefs +110
Score: Chiefs 26, 49ers 21
Longshot Player Prop:
Harrison Butker MVP +350000
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.