SWAC Tournament Preview: Prediction, Bracket, Odds, Standings and Schedule

You hear that in the distance? It's the sweet sound of day basketball, baby! The Southwestern Athletic Conference tournament gets underway this morning at the Bartow Arena in Birmingham, Alabama.

No. 2 Texas Southern and No. 7 Jackson State get the party started at 2:00 PM CST on ESPN+, followed by No. 1 Alcorn State against #8 Prairie View A&M tonight at 8:30 PM.

Despite finishing third in the conference, Southern is the favorite over at WynnBET Sportsbook with odds of +230. Texas Southern is second at +260 while regular season conference champion Alcorn State isn't far behind at +420. In a wild turn of events, the No. 8 seed Prairie View A&M has the fourth-best odds at +800, so oddsmakers think there may be an upset brewing in the early stages of the tourney.

None of these teams are currently projected to make the NCAA Tournament with an at-large bid, so the conference tournament will determine whose season goes on and who will wonder what could have been.

Let's dive into everything you need to know about the SWAC Tournament, starting with the odds over at WynnBET:

SWAC Tournament Odds

• Southern: +230

• Texas Southern: +260

• Alcorn State: +420

• Prairie View A&M: +800

• Jackson State +950

• Florida A&M: +1000

• Grambling: +1500

• Alabama A&M: +2500

SWAC Tournament Standings and Bracket

Here's a look at the standings and bracket for the SWAC Tournament:

SWAC Tournament Schedule (Dates, Times, Channel)

Each round will be broadcast on ESPN+.

All times in EST in Birmingham, Alabama.

Wednesday, March 9, 2022 - SWAC Tournament Opening Round

2:00 pm: No. 2 Texas Southern vs No. 7 Jackson State - GAME 1

8:30 pm: No. 1 Alcorn State vs No. 8 Prairie View A&M - GAME 2

Thursday, March 10, 2022 - SWAC Tournament Quarterfinals

2:00 pm: No. 3 Southern vs No. 6 Grambling State - GAME 3

8:30 pm: No. 4 Florida A&M vs No. 5 Alabama A&M - GAME 4

Friday, March 11, 2022 - SWAC Tournament Semifinals

12:00 pm: Game 2 Winner vs Game 4 Winner - GAME 5

6:30 pm: Game 1 Winner vs Game 3 Winner - GAME 6

Saturday, March 12, 2022 - SWAC Tournament Finals

6:30 pm: Game 5 Winner vs Game 6 Winner - CHAMPIONSHIP

SWAC Tournament Prediction and Pick

I've been a backer of Southern throughout the season and its strong defense is a major reason why. The Jaguars have the third-highest defensive turnover percentage in the country and are a menace for opposing offenses. With a fast tempo and the eighth-ranked 3-point defense, they'll be a tough out. KenPom has them as the favorites as well, though it's close:

But the favorites have struggled of late, going just 1-4 against the spread (ATS) over their last five and losing three outright. As good as they are at forcing turnovers, their offense is allergic to ball protection. They turn the ball over on over 20% of their possessions, but you'll notice that's a common theme in the SWAC. The biggest reason I'm fading Southern though is that it sends opponents to the free throw line at incredibly high rate, ranking 356th in the country at defensive free throw rate.

In a tournament environment, you have to win the turnover and free throw battles. I can't back Southern at +230 given the likelihood they'll lose those battles at least once.

What about Texas Southern at +260? The Tigers also struggle with turnovers but are perhaps the best defense in the conference, ranking in the 84th percentile in defense rating on the year. They're the best rebounding team in the SWAC, have a strong bench and get to the free throw line more than anyone they'll face. Those are certainly ingredients for an intriguing option and they've won 10 of 12 games coming in.

It's not often you get a No. 1 seed at +420, but that's what we've got with Alcorn State. Honestly, the odds are about right -- this team's underlying metrics aren't very good. They're in the 17th percentile in offensive rating and 31st in defensive, but they find ways to get it done. The Braves have won six straight and covered the spread in four of those, so they're peaking at the right time.

I don't have any interest in Prairie View A&M. They've lost three straight and are in the first percentile in turnover rate. Even if they upset Alcorn, I don't see them making it to the NCAA Tournament.

Florida A&M could make a run if Prairie View does upset Alcorn. They've won two of three coming in and rank in the 94th percentile in field goal percentage over their last five. If their offense can stay hot, they can overpower the rest of the conference with strong shooting.

At these odds, I think Texas Southern represents the best value. They can rebound better than anyone and are on a roll. A quarterfinal matchup with Southern would be difficult, but I think they have the edge. Give me the Tigers to win the tournament.

Pick: Texas Southern +260

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.