Take The Over On Patrick Mahomes' Rushing Prop With Confidence

The Divisional Round is full of great matchups, but the one that is making the most noise is the matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. A rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game featuring two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL, it figures to be an incredible game. Patrick Mahomes has plenty of interesting props to consider, but his rushing stats number jumps off the page.

Patrick Mahomes Over/Under 23.5 Rushing Yards

Over on WynnBET, the line has been set at 23.5 rushing yards for Mahomes. There’s multiple reasons to love this prop for this week. 

Mahomes has rushed for over 24 yards in his last three games, and in four of his last five. He’s a quarterback that thrives on extending the play and moving outside the pocket, and then capitalizing on it by finding a downfield threat like Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce, and also by rushing to pick up the yardage needed. 

He may not be Lamar Jackson in the rushing game, but he’s no slouch either. In the regular season, Mahomes rushed for 381 yards, averaging 22.4 yards per game. Of the starting QBs in the NFL this year, Mahomes finished sixth in rushing yards. 

The Matchup Paints A Good Picture

The Buffalo Bills have the first-ranked pass defense in the NFL this year, which will inevitably result in some plays being fully covered. If Mahomes can’t find an open target down the field, what are his options? Run, throw the ball away, or take a sack. He trusts his legs, especially outside the pocket. When the Bills secondary clamps down on his favorite targets, look for Mahomes to do plenty of scrambling. 

Mahomes is a threat with his legs, and is capable of extending plays when protection breaks down or the defense covers his receiving threats. When these two teams played each other in Week 5, Mahomes had a season-high 61 rushing yards. The over feels like a lock in this game, and I’ll be putting my money on it.