Take the Under on Derrick Henry Rushing Yards for Chiefs vs. Titans

Titans running back Derrick Henry couldn't ask for a more perfect matchup this afternoon when they host the Chiefs in Nashville, Tenn. today.

The top back in the NFL faces the 30th ranked rushing defense in the league in both touchdowns allowed as well as yards per attempt. Kansas City has allowed more than 100 rushing yards in four of their six games this season, giving up an average of 133.2.

Meanwhile, Henry leads the NFL in rushing by more than 260 yards over the next running back in Nick Chubb of the Browns and is averaging 130.5 yards/game BY HIMSELF!

So when WynnBET posted his rushing prop projection at 117.5 for this afternoon against KC at -115 odds (bet $115 to win $100), based on everything Henry has accomplished, as well as the ideal matchup, the number seems too good to be true!

And that's why I'm going the other way.

Game Script Does Not Set up Well for Derrick Henry to Run Wild vs. Chiefs

Kansas City, despite their flaws, remain one the league's top offenses. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have the number one scoring offense in the NFL with 18 touchdown passes and are third in passing yards with 1,887. They've scored 20+ points in every game they've played this year, going into the 30's three times and 40+ points in their Week 4 win at Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, the Titans have played better on the defensive side of the ball, but still rank in the bottom third of the league in passing yards and touchdowns allowed. They also have the 24th ranked overall defense in the league.

Even if Derrick Henry is averaging 6+ yards a carry against Kansas City, I worry that the Titans will be constantly playing from behind, likely abandoning their biggest strength in the matchup. They can commit to the run all they want, but if they're down multiple scores, running the football and churning time off the clock just doesn't work in these types of situations.

Go back to Week 1 vs. the Arizona Cardinals. In the Titans' 38-13 loss, Henry only rushed 17 times for 58 yards. He's averaged 29 in the last five games, all of which have been wins or a three-point loss. Game script matters for Henry.

Perhaps I'm overthinking the most simple of concepts: "If it ain't broke, don't fix it," but this feels like an ideal time to "zag" when the rest of the betting public "zigs."

Don't forget, in the highest projected total of the week, you can bet $1 and turn it into $100 if either team scores a touchdown at WynnBET.