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Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers Game 2 Prediction, Odds and Key Players

NHL Playoff betting preview, prediction, and best bets for Game 2 of the first round between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers.

By Jeremy Schouppe

Tampa Bay Lightning v Florida Panthers - Game Two
Tampa Bay Lightning v Florida Panthers - Game Two / Joel Auerbach/GettyImages
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The Tampa Bay Lightning opened up their playoff series with a game on Sunday afternoon, the Lightning lost this game 3-2 and will be looking to redeem themselves tonight whereas the Panthers will be looking to take a strangle hold over this series.

In Game 1 of this series, these two teams matched up evenly at five-on-five, scoring one goal per piece. However, the Panthers found the advantage of scoring with their special teams units but stayed disciplined, not allowing the Lightning to have that same opportunity.

It's safe to say the Panthers will try to stick to this style of play throughout the series, considering the Lightning's powerplay was the most efficient in the NHL. With the Panthers set as heavy favorites again, where can we find value betting game two?

Here is our full betting preview for game two of the Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers playoff series:

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Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers Odds, Puckline and Total

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers Betting Trends

  • The Panthers are 5-1 in their last six games against the Lightning.
  • The Panthers have outscored the Lightning 26-13 in the last six head-to-head matchups.
  • The Lightning are 5-2 in their last seven games when playing on the road in Florida.
  • The Panthers are 5-0 in their previous five games.
  • The Lightning are 2-5 in their last seven games.
  • The Panthers were 18-5-4 vs Atlantic Division opponents in the regular season.
  • The Panthers were 10-3-1 vs Atlantic Division opponents at home in the regular season.
  • The Panthers have gone under the total in seven straight playoff games at home.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, April 23
Game Time: 7:30 PM EST
Venue: Amarant Bank Arena
How To Watch: ESPN2, Sportsnet 360, TVA Sports 2
Series Record: Panthers 1-0

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers Key Players to Watch

Tampa Bay Lightning

Brandon Hagel: Hagel scored the first playoff goal for the Lightning in game one of this series. He has been hot recently, tallying 10 points in his last 10 games, and has played well against the Panthers recently recording point in four of his last five games head-to-head. If the Lightning are going to compete in this series, they will have to continue to get production from their secondary scorers. Look for Hagel to play well again on the Lightning's second line.

Florida Panthers

Matthew Tkachuk: The Lightning have no clue how to deal with this guy. In his last 10 games against the Lightning, Tkachuk has recorded 16 points. He has also been on fire recently, tallying a point in seven of his last eight games and 11 points over that stretch. If he can keep himself out of the penalty box and stay on the ice, he is one of the toughest players to deal with on this Panthers roster.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers Prediction and Pick

In Game 1, the Panthers came out and took care of business; the 3-2 score does not tell the whole story, as the Lightning scored their second goal with 10 seconds left in the third period.

The Panthers had almost double the expected goals and high-danger scoring chances than the Lightning. This, combined with the Lightning's lack of success against the Panthers in recent history, has me worried for the Lightning heading into game two tonight.

In past years, the Lightning have had the greatest equalizer, having Andrei Vasilevskiy in net. While they still have Vasilevskiy back there, he hasn't been the same guy this season since returning from having surgery. Since returning, Vasilevskiy is allowing 0.10 goals above expected per 60 minutes, while Sergei Bobrovsky, who the Panthers will counter with tonight, is saving 0.32 goals above expected per 60 minutes, which ranks 12th among goalies who have made at least 10 starts this season (via NaturalStatTrick).

In addition to the possible goaltending advantage, the Panthers have been the much better team at even strength this year, having the third-best goals-for percentage and fifth-best expected goal percentage throughout the regular season, whereas the Lightning ranked bottom 12 in the NHL in both of these categories.

The Lightning were carried by their powerplay most of the season, and despite the Panthers taking a ton of penalties in the regular season, it seems that they understand that they need to stay disciplined against this Lightning team. The Panthers have won all six games in the calendar year of 2023 versus the Lightning when taking four penalties or less.

If the Panthers come out taking penalties early, it may be a wise idea to live bet the over, but for now, I will take the better team to get the job done on home ice.

Florida Panthers 60 Min Moneyline (-105)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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