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Target This One Longshot to Win the 2024 PGA Championship

Iain MacMillan breaks down his favorite longshot bet at 150-1 odds to win this week's PGA Championship at Valhalla.

By Iain MacMillan

Mar 9, 2023; Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, USA; Alex Noren watches his tee shot during the first round
Mar 9, 2023; Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, USA; Alex Noren watches his tee shot during the first round / David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports
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Ever since correctly predicting Brian Harman winning last year's Open Championship, I've been chasing the high of cashing in on a golfer at north of 100/1 odds at a major championship.

I've found my guy who will take over that role for me at this week's PGA Championship. The guy I'm betting on has statistically been one of the best golfers on the PGA Tour this season, yet is listed at 150/1 to win this week.

The golfer I'm targeting is the 41-year old from Sweden, Alex Noren.

PGA Championship Longshot Bet

Alex Noren is available at +15000 (150-1) at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Before you trash this bet too much, hear me out.

The top four golfers on the PGA Tour in "Strokes Gained: Total" this season are as follows; Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, and Wyndham Clark. The fifth name on that list is Noren, at +1.276. He's above golfers like Sahith Theegala, Ludvig Aberg, and Hideki Matsuyama yet he's significantly below all of them on the list of odds to win this week.

The 41-year-old's biggest strength is his play around the greens. He leads the Tour in scrambling percentage and he ranks sixth in strokes gained: around-the-green. Those metrics are going to be key at Valhalla, a course that has tiny greens that will force golfers to scramble more often than they're used to.

You may not want to back the Swede at a course that's going to be a birdie-fest, as he ranks 121st in birdie average, but a course like this, where pars are great scores, is one where he can thrive at. He ranks third on Tour in scoring average largely because he ranks third in bogey avoidance.

He's also entering this week's event having not finished worse than T24 in seven-straight starts dating back to the Cognizant Classic in early March.

If there's one argument against him it's that he's not the longest driver of the golf ball, which will put him at a disadvantage at Valhalla compared to the top drivers on Tour. If that's enough to scare you away from betting on him to win, you can still bet on him to finish inside the top 20 (ties included) at +320 at BetMGM Sportsbook.

There's no better long-shot bet to place this week than one on Alex Noren at the PGA Championship.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

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