Tarik Skubal Screaming Value to Win AL Cy Young for Tigers

The Detroit Tigers have been among the most disappointing teams in MLB this season. After being a trendy pick to win the American League Central, Detroit has a 19-30 record as their postseason dreams have quickly fallen apart.

But don't let the Tigers' disappointing campaign distract you from Tarik Skubal's full-fledged breakout. Listed at +5000 at WynnBET Sportsbook, Skubal is a screaming value
to win the American League Cy Young award.

The Case for Tarik Skubal

While the Tigers have been terrible, Skubal is a bright spot shining so vivid he demands our attention. He reformed the delivery of his slider and changeup over the offseason and we can see him growing more comfortable in each start. Skubal has a 3-2 record and 2.44 ERA on the season, but an incredible 1.08 ERA in his last four starts.

He ranks among the league leaders in most major pitching metrics, including the 87th percentile in expected ERA and 90th in walk rate, and his performance is drawing comparisons to elite company:

If you're accomplishing something that only Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, and Max Scherzer have accomplished, then you deserve to be taken seriously. You'll notice each season comparable to Skubal's ended with a top-four finish in the Cy Young voting, but Skubal is listed at +5000? What gives?

Look at Skubal alongside the AL Cy Young favorites and tell me with a straight face he should be +5000:

• Tarik Skubal: 51.2 IP (Innings Pitched) - 55 strikeouts - 1.03 WHIP (Walks & Hits per Inning Pitched) - 2.68 xERA (expected ERA) - 2.04 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) - 2.0 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)

• Justin Verlander (+375): 57.2 IP - 55 strikeouts - 0.83 WHIP - 3.02 xERA - 3.66 FIP - 1.1 WAR

• Kevin Gausman (+500): 61.0 IP - 70 strikeouts - 1.07 WHIP - 2.91 xERA - 1.57 FIP - 2.7 WAR

• Shane McClanahan (+600): 58.1 IP - 81 strikeouts - 0.91 WHIP - 2.45 xERA - 1.83 FIP - 1.5 WAR

• Shohei Ohtani (+800): 44.1 IP - 63 strikeouts - 1.04 WHIP - 2.93 xERA - 2.51 FIP - 1.4 WAR

• Nestor Cortes (+800): 53.0 IP - 61 strikeouts - 0.85 WHIP - 2.17 xERA - 2.56 FIP - 1.6 WAR

• Dylan Cease (+800): 52.3 IP - 76 strikeouts - 1.25 WHIP - 2.62 xERA - 2.86 FIP - 1.3 WAR

Of this group of the top AL Cy Young contenders, Skubal ranks fourth in WHIP and xERA, third in FIP, and second in WAR. Yet his odds sit at +5000 while everyone else is in triple digits.

That's downright insane, and Skubal is an incredible value play.

It's not as if there's no precedent for a Cy Young pitcher to come from a bad team, either. Zack Greinke won in 2009 for the 65-win Royals, Felix Hernandez won the following season for the 61-win Mariners, and Jacob deGrom secured consecutive Cy Young awards in the last five years despite only winning 10 and 11 games in each season.

Skubal absolutely can win this award for a downtrodden Tigers club. If anything, Detroit's poor play could serve to bolster Skubal's case. "Look at everything he's doing despite the disaster around him! Imagine how good he'd be with a decent roster!"

There's one huge advantage that Skubal has over his competition as well: the weakest division in the American League. While Cortes, Gausman, and McClanahan have to battle the monstrous lineups of the AL East, Skubal gets a majority of his games against bottom-feeding offenses.

The Royals, White Sox, and Guardians all rank in the bottom-half of MLB in OPS, while the Twins have proven to be a streaky group. Skubal should be able to wrack up great performances against struggling lineups while his counterparts go to war with some of the most dangerous hitters in baseball.

It's honestly disrespectful to have Skubal listed at +5000, but one sportsbook's disrespect is another bettor's payday. WynnBET has the Tigers as +108 home underdogs to the Twins tonight and you already know I'll be all over Detroit.

Skubal is one of the best pitchers in MLB and it's time for sportsbooks to treat him accordingly. Until then, he'll remain a screaming value to win the American League Cy Young award.

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.