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TCU vs. Baylor Prediction and Odds (Back the Bears to Win Big vs. Horned Frogs)

By Ben Heisler

The Baylor Bears are tied with Texas Tech for 2nd place in the current Big 12 standings, trialing the Kansas Jayhawks by 1.5 games.
The Baylor Bears are tied with Texas Tech for 2nd place in the current Big 12 standings, trialing the Kansas Jayhawks by 1.5 games. / Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports
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The Baylor Bears can smell a shot at the top of the Big 12 standings, but in order to extract revenge on the Kansas Jayhawks a week from Saturday in Waco, they'll need to take care of business first as a double-digit favorite vs. the TCU Horned Frogs.

Baylor let a great opportunity slip away, albeit in a tough environment in Lubbock against Texas Tech on Wednesday night. They're also happy to be home after playing three of their last four games on the road.

For TCU, they're coming off two straight losses to Texas Tech, as well as a brutal 54-51 loss to struggling Iowa State in which they only squeaked 51 points on the board.

Here are the latest odds over at WynnBET Sportsbook:

TCU vs. Baylor Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • TCU +12 (-110)
  • Baylor -12 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • TCU +600
  • Baylor -900

Total:

  • 138.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

TCU vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick

If the Bears want to keep pace with the Jayhawks at the top of the conference, they cannot afford to lose games at home. Whlie 12-points is a lot to ask in conference games, the Bears have covered 57% of the time at home and as a favorite.

Both of these teams are amongst the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, with TCU ranking 1st and Baylor fourth. With those situations likely neutralizing each other out, Baylor has decisive advantages in neither every other statistical category. The Bears have the seventh best offensive efficiency rating via KenPom and also sport a top-17 defensive efficiency to boot. The Frogs are slow to set up their offense, and to make matters worse, they turn the ball over frequently; 21.4% of their plays. Baylor's defense ranks 13th in turnover percentage, which sets up plenty of easy points in transition for a team that's known to cough up the basketball.

TCU has also struggled to shoot the ball, ranking 327th in the country in three point percentage and 163rd in two-point shots. With Baylor's length, athleticism, and their own ability to shoot well anywhere on the floor, I expect this game to get ugly early.

LEAN: Baylor -12 (-110)

Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting picks in real-time HERE!

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