TCU vs. Baylor Prediction and Odds for College Football Week 12 (TCU Continues to be Undervalued)

TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan (15)
TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan (15) / Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

Sonny Dykes, Max Duggan and the TCU Horned Frogs are still unbeaten and could be headed to the College Football Playoff. There are still a few hurdles to clear, but TCU was No. 4 in last week's CFP Committee rankings and a 17-10 win over Texas certainly didn’t hurt its resume. Now, the Horned Frogs just have to get through Baylor and Iowa State on their way to the Big 12 title game. 

Baylor still has an outside shot at making it into the Big 12 championship, but after last week it seems unlikely. The Bears lost to Kansas State, 31-3 in Waco Texas and are now 6-4 and 4-3 in conference. 

Even with 10-0 TCU coming to town after a dud, the Bears are only 2.5 point underdogs, so let’s check out the odds and the trends for this Big 12 matchup. 

TCU vs. Baylor Odds, Spread and Total

Baylor and TCU Betting Trends

  • Baylor is 6-4 ATS
  • TCU is 8-1-1 ATS
  • The over is 7-3 in Baylor games
  • TCU is 4-0 ATS in last four 
  • Over is 6-1 in Baylor’s last 7
  • Road team is 5-1 ATS in last six meetings

TCU vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick

Max Duggan has been a magician for the Horned Frogs this year. He routinely has had to lead them back in the second half of games and TCU has the 8th best second-half scoring offense in the nation. He has 25 passing touchdowns to just two interceptions and has run for four TDs and 241 yards to go with his 2,531 passing. Duggan is still +6000 to win the Heisman which is insane. 

Blake Shapen turned the ball over twice in the loss to Kansas State last week, but that doesn’t begin to describe all the problems that Baylor had in that game. The Bears are a decent team and have been in the mix in a congested Big 12, but they are 25th in scoring offense and 45th in scoring defense. Their defense is slightly better than TCU’s, but they don’t deserve to be less than a field goal underdog. 

TCU has been undervalued all year and their 8-1-1 record against the spread is evidence of that. I’ve rode the Horned Frogs all season and I’m not going to stop now. It feels like a square bet, but sometimes you can’t overthink it. 

Pick: TCU -2.5 (-120)

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change