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TCU Vs. Cincinnati Prediction, Odds, Key Players for Tuesday, Jan. 16

By Reed Wallach

Cincinnati Bearcats guard Josh Reed (10) celebrates a shot in the second half of the NCAA Big 12
Cincinnati Bearcats guard Josh Reed (10) celebrates a shot in the second half of the NCAA Big 12 / Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY
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TCU and Cincinnati meet in a battle of emerging Big 12 contenders.

The Bearcats have hit the ground running in Big 12 play, knocking off BYU on the road and going toe-to-toe with the likes of Texas and a potent offense of Baylor, losing by one and three, respectively. The team welcomes TCU, who has only one Big 12 loss, at Kansas by two and have beaten Oklahoma and Houston at home.

Who has the edge in this battle of Big 12 foes? Let's break it down with our full betting breakdown:

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TCU vs. Cincinnati Odds, Spread and Total

Cincinnati vs. TCU Betting Trends

  • TCU is 10-6 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • TCU is 2-0 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Cincinnati is 7-9 ATS this season
  • Cincinnati has gone OVER in nine of 16 this season

TCU vs. Cincinnati How to Watch

  • Date: Tuesday, January 16th
  • Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Fifth Third Arena
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN+
  • TCU Record: 13-3
  • Cincinnati Record: 12-4

TCU vs. Cincinnati Key Players to Watch

TCU

Emmanuel Miller: Miller is enjoying a career year in Fort Worth, averaging nearly 17 points on 50/40/84 shooting splits. Miller has turned it on in Big 12 play as well against three top 10 teams, scoring 20, 27, and 13 in his last three games.

Cincinnati

Dan Skillings: In a game that may feature limited scoring, Skillings's ability to get going will be huge for the Bearcats offense, scoring 20 or more in two of his last five. He is fresh off the best game of his career, scoring 24 and grabbing six rebounds at Baylor while hitting nine of 14 shots.

TCU vs. Cincinnati Prediction and Pick

These are two teams that force the issue inside the paint, reliant on getting opportunities at the rim, but two defenses that are elite on the interior.

TCU is 11th in ShotQuality's rim frequency and sixth in SQ points per possession. However, Cincinnati is top 100 in limiting those shots while top 50 in points allowed per possession. The Bearcats are hopeful that transfer big Aziz Bandaogo can go after missing the Baylor game, but the team has a capable big in Viktor Lakhin who can shut down the rim as well.

Further, Cincy is the best defensive rebounding team in the country, per KenPom, a massive boost against TCU, who is 26th in offensive rebounding rate this season.

The Horned Frogs may not get its preferred method of offense, but the defense should keep a lid on Cincy's similar offense that also needs second chances to generate efficient offense, 10th in offensive rebounding rate and 136th in effective field goal percentage.

The Bearcats are a limited offense overall, fourth in SQ's shot-making metric, and are likely going to struggle against TCU's physical defense that doesn't give up anything easy inside.

I expect TCU, off the win against Houston and shooting a Big 12 high 38% from distance as a team, to come back to Earth a bit and struggle to score on the road.

Give me the under on Tuesday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!

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