TCU vs. Iowa State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, Feb. 10 (Target Total)

Feb 3, 2024; Waco, Texas, USA; Iowa State Cyclones guard Tamin Lipsey (3) controls the ball against
Feb 3, 2024; Waco, Texas, USA; Iowa State Cyclones guard Tamin Lipsey (3) controls the ball against / Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports

TCU and Iowa State meet in Saturday Big 12 action.

The Cyclones, without its starting point guard Tamin Lipsey, went to Fort Worth and knocked off TCU in impressive fashion last month, and now are home to face the Horned Frogs. Can the Cyclones elite defense give TCU more trouble en route to another resume building victory?

Here's our best bet for Saturday's matchup:

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TCU vs. Iowa State Odds, Spread and Total

Iowa State vs. TCU Betting Trends

  • Iowa State is 11-3 against the spread (ATS) this season at home
  • TCU is 13-9 ATS this season
  • TCU is 3-1 ATS as an underdog
  • TCU has gone OVER in three of four games as an underdog

TCU vs. Iowa State How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, February 10th
  • Game Time: 2:00 PM EST
  • Venue: James H. Hilton Coliseum
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
  • TCU Record: 16-6
  • Iowa State Record: 17-5

TCU vs. Iowa State Key Players to Watch


Emmanuel Miller: Against an Iowa State defense that is relentless on the interior, it's going to come down to if TCU can hit shots form the perimeter. Miller is shooting 40% from three this season, 45% in Big 12 play, but was silent in the team's loss at home to the Cyclones, scoring only10 points and missing both his shots from three. Can the fifth year senior get back on track?

Iowa State

Keshon Gilbert: With Lipsey out in the first meeting, Gilbert took on a bigger role and shined, scoring 20 points while dishing out four assists. Despite struggling from the perimeter ,Gilbert is the slashing wing on this aggressive Iowa State offense, getting to the free throw line at a high clip and providing another ball handler.

TCU vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick

While the first game provided fireworks as Iowa State built a double digit lead for much of the game, I don't believe this game will be as high scoring. The game script of the underdog Cyclones building an early lead helped push this game just over the total.

Iowa State's defense is fierce and will challenge this TCU team that is strong at shooting the three, but it's not a primary function of its offense. The Horned Frogs are 12th in Big 12 three-point rate despite shooting over 40% from beyond the arc in league play. The team will be uncomfortable against this compact Iowa State defense that is leading the Big 12 in conference play turnover percentage.

Further, Iowa State doesn't let you run. The team is 313th in opponent transition frequency per ShotQuality, which is massive against TCU, who leads the country in transition rate.

I think Iowa State dictates the terms and this game goes under the total.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!