TCU vs Texas Prediction and Odds (Take Horned Frogs To Keep It Close)

In a rematch of a dominant 73-50 Texas win last month, the 19-8 Longhorns hope for a similar result when they host the 17-8 TCU Horned Frogs tonight at 6:00 p.m. CST.

Texas has lost two of their last three against brutal competition, but that's life in the Big 12. The Horned Frogs beat West Virginia in their last game to snap a three-game losing streak and need marquee wins to bolster their NCAA tournament resume.

Can TCU get it done on the road or will the Longhorns continue dominating this matchup?

Let's check out the odds courtesy of WynnBET:

TCU vs Texas Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• TCU +8.5 (-110)
• Texas -8.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• TCU: +350
• Texas: -450

Total:

• 126.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

TCU vs Texas Prediction and Pick

Texas beat TCU by 23 on the road and now get the rematch at home. Easy bet on the Longhorns, right?

Not so fast! The Horned Frogs have been an excellent bet on the road, amassing a 7-1 against the spread (ATS) record thanks to the highest offensive rebounding rate in the country. They managed only nine against Texas in the first matchup, but I think they're likely to take advantage of a Texas frontcourt that ranks just 250th in defensive rebounding percentage.

TCU shot terribly last month against the Longhorns. They were 18-for-50 from the field, 2-for-16 from beyond the arc and a gross 12-for-21 from the charity stripe. I'm encouraged they got to the line so much and think they'll be determined for a betting shooting performance today.

Texas' defense is extremely good, but its offense overperformed in that first contest. The Longhorns shot 8-for-18 from beyond the arc, well above their season average of 32.3%, and TCU's 27th-ranked defense should be stingier.

As a home favorite, Texas is just 1-4 ATS in their last five while TCU is 7-2 in their last nine as an underdog. One of those losses was to the Longhorns of course, but I think this line is just too big against a Texas offense that goes through long spurts of woeful ineptitude.

I think oddsmakers are begging us to take Texas today and I'm not taking the bait. Give me TCU to improve to 8-1 ATS on the road and 6-1 ATS as a road underdog.

Pick: TCU +8.5 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.