TCU vs. Utah State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NCAA Tournament First Round (Horned Frogs Set to Dominate)
By Reed Wallach
TCU and Utah State meet on Friday night as the No. 9 seed Horned Frogs look to stop Mountain West's Aggies in its tracks with a likely matchup with Purdue on the horizon.
There's plenty of star power on display Friday night when Emmanuel Miller of TCU and Great Osobor of Utah State take the floor, but who has the edge with the No. 9 seed favored over the No. 8 with the Horned Frogs laying a few points?
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TCU vs. Utah State Odds, Spread and Total
Utah State vs. TCU Betting Trends
- TCU is 19-14 against the spread (ATS) this season
- Utah State is 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season
- Utah State has gone OVER in 19 of 31 games against Division 1 opponents
- Utah State has gone OVER in five of six games as an underdogs
TCU vs. Utah State How to Watch
- Date: Friday, March 22nd
- Game Time: 9:55 PM EST
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
- How to Watch (TV): TBS
- TCU Record: 21-12
- Utah State Record: 27-6
TCU vs. Utah State Key Players to Watch
TCU
Emmanuel Miller: Miller will look to outclass a slow-footed Utah State perimeter defense that struggles to slow down teams from in close, outside the top 300 in two-point defense. Miller has shown a clean three-point stroke this season, 38% from beyond the arc, but is also elite at getting to the free throw line.
Utah State
Great Osobor: A unique post talent, Osobor is an incredibly talented big man who has a fantastic touch around the rim and great vision to kick out of double teams. It's worth noting that TCU has struggled against post-up actions all season, so Osobor may have a big outing.
TCU vs. Utah State Prediction and Pick
These are two teams that love to push the pace. TCU is first in transition frequency while Utah State isn't far behind, ranking 63rd according to ShotQuality.
However, the Horned Frogs' relentless rim pressure is going to make for an issue for the Aggies' defense which is 304th in two-point field goal percentage defense and doesn't turn opponents over, 223rd in turnover rate, according to KenPom.
If TCU can get to the rim at will against this Utah State defense, I'm hard-pressed to see the Mountain West entrant keeping up. While the Horned Frogs have some defensive concerns as well, Utah State is top 20 in two-point field goal percentage and gets to the free throw line at a high rate against a handsy TCU defense, -- Utah State is top 30 in free throw rate while TCU is 257th in opponent free throw rate.
It's also worth noting that Utah State's strength of schedule pales in comparison to TCU. The Aggies come from the Mountain West, and the team struggled against quality competition. Utah State is 90th in Bart Torvik's adjusted efficiency rating against top 50 teams with a defense that is 193rd in the nation in nine games. Meanwhile, TCU played 16 games against top 50 opponents, ranking 53rd in that same metric.
I think the Horned Frogs have plenty of avenues to success on both sides of the floor and can out-pace Utah State on a neutral floor.
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