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Team USA vs. Serbia Olympic Semifinal Predictions, Odds and Key Players for Aug. 8 (Lay it with USA)

A betting breakdown of Thursday’s Olympic men’s semifinal between Team USA and Serbia. 

By Shelby Dermer

Aug 6, 2024; Paris, France; United States centre Joel Embiid (11) controls the ball against Brazil in the first half in a men’s basketball quarterfinal game during the Paris 2024 Olympic Summer Games at Accor Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 6, 2024; Paris, France; United States centre Joel Embiid (11) controls the ball against Brazil in the first half in a men’s basketball quarterfinal game during the Paris 2024 Olympic Summer Games at Accor Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports / Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
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Led by LeBron James (12 points, 9 assists), Joel Embiid (14 points, 7 rebounds) and Devin Booker (18 points), the United States cruised past Brazil, 122-87, in the Olympic men’s quarterfinal earlier this week. 

Team USA is one victory away from reaching the Gold Medal game and standing in the way is Serbia. Anchored by Denver Nuggets star Nikola Jokic (21 points, 14 rebounds, 8 assists), Serbia survived, 95-90, over Australia in overtime in the quarterfinals. 

As expected, Team USA is a monster favorite against Serbia with a 16.5-point spread and a gargantuan -1450 price on the moneyline. Will Serbia put up a fight? Here’s the betting breakdown of the matchup. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

USA vs. Serbia Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

  • USA: -16.5 (-108)
  • Serbia: +16.5 (-112)

Moneyline 

  • USA: -1450
  • Serbia: +850

Total: 187 (Over -112/Under -108)

USA vs. Serbia How to Watch

  • Date: Thursday, Aug. 8
  • Game time: 3 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Accor Arena (Paris, France)
  • How to watch (TV): Peacock, NBCOlympics.com

USA vs. Serbia Players to Watch

USA

  • Kevin Durant: USA’s roster is loaded with star-studded NBA talent with several players who can show up in a big way each and every night. The spotlight is on Durant in this matchup because of his performance over Serbia in the group stage, when he poured in 23 points on 8-of-9 shooting. 

Serbia

  • Nikola Jokic: Of course Serbia’s team is highlighted by the three-time NBA Most Valuable Player. Jokic had 20 points, 8 assists and 5 rebounds in the loss to USA in July. There’s no doubt he’ll need a big-time performance on Thursday if Serbia has any chance at a monumental upset. 

USA vs. Serbia Prediction and Pick

Can any team stop Team USA’s quest for a 17th gold medal in men’s basketball? Team USA is matched up with Serbia for the third time in less than a month and already has a pair of 26-point victories under their belt - 105-79 in exhibition play July 17 and 110-84 in the group stage July 28. 

Outside of Jokic, Serbia has leaned on Bogdan Bogdanovic, who is connecting at nearly a 50% clip from 3-point range and averaging 18.5 points per game. Team USA, however, has studs at every spot 1-5 through the lineup and defending the perimeter has been a strength. 

Team USA held Serbia to just 9-of-37 from downtown (Bogdanovic went 2-for-6) in their previous matchup and swarmed the perimeter in the quarterfinals, limiting Brazil to 32.4% (12-of-37) from beyond the arc. 

With several stellar frontcourt options off the bench, like Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo, Team USA has been able to dominate the boards. They had a 39-32 edge on the glass against Serbia and grabbed 46 boards against Brazil in the quarterfinals. 

Serbia would need a historic night from the perimeter in order to pull off the upset, on top of some second-chance opportunities at the right time. Those are two categories that Team USA has been great at so far in Paris and it’s difficult to see another path for Serbia to pull off an upset against one of the greatest teams ever assembled. With a pair of 26-point wins against this team under their belt, lay the points with the Americans.

Pick: Team USA -16.5 

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