Tennessee vs. Kentucky Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 9

Tennessee missed an opportunity to knock off Alabama for a second straight season, this time on the road, failing to generate any offense in the second half.

The Volunteers' schedule remains difficult with the team traveling to face Kentucky, which is desperate of a signature victory this season and had a bye to prepare for the team's matchup against Tennessee's up-tempo offensive attack.

However, the Vols have struggled on offense, different from what we have come to expect from Josh Heupel team's, but the defense has been far improved. How will that play out in the team's second straight road game?

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Tennessee vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread and Total

Kentucky vs. Tennessee Betting Trends

• Kentucky is 4-3 against the spread (ATS) this season
• Tennessee is 3-4 ATS this season
• Kentucky is 0-1 ATS as an underdog this season
• Tennessee has gone UNDER in four of six games as a favorite

Tennessee vs. Kentucky How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, October 28
• Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
• Venue: Kroger Field
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Tennessee Record: 5-2
• Kentucky Record: 5-2

Tennessee vs. Kentucky Key Players to Watch

Tennessee

Joe Milton: Milton had two strong drives in the loss to Alabama, the first one of the game and a touchdown drive before half, but overall it was an unimpressive outing yet again. He passed for 281 yards with two touchdowns while completing 28-of-41 passes, but the Vols offense had a 20th percentile EPA/Play mark when compared to games last season, per gameonpaper.com.

Further, Milton fumbled the ball down one score in the second half that put the game out of reach. On the year, the Tennessee signal-caller is in charge of an offense that is outside the top 90 in EPA/Pass.

Kentucky

Devin Leary: Speaking of struggling quarterbacks, Leary hasn't panned out for the Wildcats. He is completing only 54% of his passes with 14 touchdown passes to seven interceptions. The Wildcats passing game is outside the top 100 in terms of EPA, but had a bye to prepare for the Vols improved defense.

Tennessee vs. Kentucky Prediction and Pick

Both passing games have struggled quite a bit, as mentioned above, and each team's run game has been incredibly impressive.

Let's start with Kentucky, which is top 10 in EPA/Rush as Vanderbilt transfer Ray Davis looks well on his way to rushing for over 1,000 for Big Blue Nation this season. However, Tennessee's improved defense is built on its stout defensive line. The team is top 15 in the country in rush success rate allowed and is allowing about three yards per carry.

Tennessee will look to put Kentucky into obvious passing situations where the team can put pressure on Leary. The Vols are top five in the country in sacks (28), but Kentucky's offensive line has been formidable thus far, ranking 35th in sacks allowed (11).

I do think UK will struggle overall on offense, but getting the bye week to prepare for a questionable Vols secondary should allow offensive coordinator Liam Coen to scheme up some plays downfield for Leary, who is still looking to find his stride down-to-down, but has showcased some big play ability. Leary's completion percentage is outside the top 110 nationally, but the Vols are 32nd in explosive pass rate.

Meanwhile, Tennessee's offense has fallen off incredibly after being one of the best in the sport last season. Most of that is around the ineffective play of Milton. The Vols are outside the top 100 in explosive pass rate and Milton is completing only 25% of his deep passes this season, the weak point of the Kentucky defense.

The team has leaned on Jaylen Wright and the ground game, averaging over five yards per carry, but I don't figure that to work against a Kentucky defense that, like Tennessee, is allowing about three yards per carry.

I can't trust the Vols on the road with its suspect offense. The team scored on the opening drive of the game at Alabama last week, and hit one deep pass to set up another touchdown before half. Outside of that, the team's inability to get the passing game going has led to stalled drives way too often.

I believe the team's struggles continue on the road again and I'll take UK to cover as small home underdogs.

PICK: Kentucky +4

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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