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Tennessee vs. Purdue Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NCAA Tournament Elite Eight (Vols Set for Final Four)

By Reed Wallach

Tennessee guard Zakai Zeigler (5) makes a jump shot against Creighton during the second half of the
Tennessee guard Zakai Zeigler (5) makes a jump shot against Creighton during the second half of the / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK
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Tennessee and Purdue meet on Sunday with a spot in the Final Four on the line. 

The Midwest Region Finals will feature a rematch from the Maui Invitational back in November, one of the more exciting non conference matchups that Purdue won by four. This time around, Tennessee will look to even the score with much higher stakes. The two best players in college basketball this season, Purdue’s Zach Edey and Tennessee’s Dalton Knecht, face off in the Elite Eight, but who has the edge?

Here’s how I’m betting Sunday’s matchup. 

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Tennessee vs. Purdue Odds, Spread and Total

Purdue vs. Tennessee Betting Trends

  • Tennessee is 2-2 against the spread (ATS) this season as an underdog
  • Purdue has covered in all three games in the NCAA Tournament
  • Purdue has gone OVER in 23 of 36 games this season

Tennessee vs. Purdue How to Watch

  • Date: Sunday, March 31st
  • Game Time: 2:20 PM EST
  • Venue: Little Caesars Arena
  • How to Watch (TV): CBS
  • Tennessee Record: 27-8
  • Purdue Record: 32-4

Tennessee vs. Purdue Key Players to Watch

Tennessee

Dalton Knecht: For Tennessee to win, it’ll fall on Knecht’s shot making from all three levels of the floor. The Northern Colorado transfer finished strong against Creigthon, hitting a few threes to ice the game, finishing with 24 points, five rebounds and five assists. 

Purdue

Zach Edey: The very likely two-time Wooden Award winner is nearly unstoppable, scoring at least 23 points and grabbing at least 14 rebounds in each of the three tournament games. Can Tennessee, who bolsters a ton of size in the frontcourt, slow him down? Way back in November, he scored 23 points and grabbed 10 rebounds while going to the line 17 times in the win against the Vols. 

Tennessee vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick

The first meeting between these two featured 78 combined free throws and a four point Purdue victory. If the Boilermakers are going to the line north of 40 times again, the team will be tough to stop with Edey’s excellence, but I’m going to bank on the better defense winning out. 

In that same meeting, the Vols turned Prudue over 16 times, a 21% turnover rate, as the likes of Zakai Zeigler and Jhmai Mashack made life difficult for the Boilermakers ball handlers. If Tennessee is able to pressure the rock and limit the Purdue offense that is top 10 in offensive rebounding rate to one chance, I believe that the offense is suited to go toe-to-toe with its Big Ten opponent on Sunday afternoon. 

Similar to Creighton, Purdue will drop Edey in pick-and-roll coverage, content allowing mid-range jump shots but using the 7’4” center to shut off the rim for opponents. 

Tennessee is comfortable there, evident against Creighton. According to ShotQuality, Purdue is sixth in the country in mid-range shot frequency and 133rd in points per possession allowed. The Vols are 53rd in shot frequency on offense while scoring at a top 40 clip. We saw on Friday night the likes of Zakai Zeigler and Knecht comfortable pulling up from around the elbow, and the team will need to be on from there to secure a victory. 

Further, running through its flex offense actions a ton, the Vols have been a dangerous team cutting off the ball, shooting nearly 62% on cut actions, per Synergy Sports. This is a tricky task for Purdue, who has been vulnerable in its away from the ball defense, allowing teams to shoot 65% on cuts this season. 

Of course, the question is how does Tennessee slow down Edey. The team has the size to make the Purdue backcourt uncomfortable, which may help with denying post up actions for Edey. If the officials call this game tight, Tennessee does have bodies in the frontcourt to at least make the big man work for his buckets, and the Vols defense grades out in the 75th percentile in terms of points per possession allowed on post ups according to Synergy. The key, though, is what else can the Boilermakers do to make the Vols work? 

Tennessee’s defense has been outstanding all season long, and its ability to pressure the ball is the differentiator in this matchup. The team did an excellent job against Creighton of making the team hunt for late shot clock jump shots, and while Purdue has the ultimate safety valve in Edey, the team hasn’t seen this type of ball pressure in the Big Ten for much of this season.

It’s worth noting, in the Boilermakers four losses this season, the team had a turnover percentage greater than 20%. This is the key for the Vols.  

Of course, these two played so there is some familiarity, but that game was back-and-forth for much of that one. I think Tennessee gets over the hump this time and goes to the Final Four. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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