Texans vs. Cowboys Prediction and Odds for NFL Week 14 (Sell High on Dallas in Battle of Texas)

Dec 4, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) celebrates a
Dec 4, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) celebrates a / Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Only twice every eight years do we get a chance to watch the battle of Texas between the Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys.

Unfortunately, this year's edition of it won't be very intriguing with the Texans holding on to the title of the worst team in the NFL. They kept the Cleveland Browns from scoring a touchdown against them last week, but still managed to lose 24-17.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys ran away from the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football, whooping them by a final score of 54-19.

Let's dive into the odds for this Week 13 battle of Texas.

Texans vs. Cowboys Odds, Spread, and Total

Texans vs. Cowboys Betting Trends

  • Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games
  • The UNDER is 5-1 in the Texans' last six games
  • Texans are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games against NFC East opponents
  • Cowboys are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games
  • The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between these two teams
  • Cowboys are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games played in December

Texans vs. Cowboys Prediction and Pick

I'm not going to sit here and argue that the Texans AREN'T the worst team in the NFL.

But, with that being said, I don't think they're as bad as people say they are. Let's start off by looking at net yards per play. They're tied for the worst mark in the NFL with the Chargers and Steelers at -0.9. Would you set either of those two teams as 17-point underdogs to the Cowboys? Would you even set them as 10-point underdogs in this spot? I bet you wouldn't.

This is also a huge sell high spot on the Cowboys after blowing out the Colts on Sunday Night Football. People's opinion of the Cowboys couldn't be higher and their opinion of the Texans couldn't be lower.

Let's talk about a couple of areas the Texans actually aren't that bad in. Heading into this week, they rank 12th in third down defense and 7th in red zone defense, allowing teams to score a touchdown on only 51.68% of their trips to the red zone.

If their red zone defense can keep the Cowboys in check and hold them to field goals, that could be enough to keep the score within 17 points.

It's a gross bet, but I'll take the Texans at +17.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.