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Texans vs. Dolphins Prediction and Odds for NFL Week 12 (Miami's Offense Amongst Best in NFL)

By Iain MacMillan

Miami Dolphins enter the field before the start of their game against the Cleveland Browns during
Miami Dolphins enter the field before the start of their game against the Cleveland Browns during / BILL INGRAM/THE PALM BEACH POST / USA
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Not many people would question the Houston Texans claim to the title of the worst team in the NFL.

As a result, they are the biggest underdogs of Week 12 when they head to Florida to face the Miami Dolphins.

Tua and company are coming off their BYE week and are currently holding on to first place in the AFC East. They can't afford to lose games like this Sunday's against the Texans if they want to hold on to that top spot.

Let's dive into the odds for this game, and then I'll give you my best bet.

Texans vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, and Total

Texans vs. Dolphins Betting Trends

  • The Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • Texans are 8-2 straight up in their last 10 games against Dolphins
  • The UNDER is 5-1 in the Texans' last six games against AFC opponents
  • Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games
  • Dolphins are 10-1 straight up in their last 11 home games
  • Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played in November.

Texans vs. Dolphins Prediction and Pick

I have no interest in betting on this spread. There's no doubt that the Dolphins should win, and win big, but 12.5 points is exactly where I'd set the number so I think there's more value on the total.

The Dolphins are an OVER bettors dream, but yet are only 5-5 on the OVER this season. I'm of the firm belief that 45.5 is too low of a total for a game involving the Dolphins.

Miami ranks second in the NFL in yards per play, averaging 6.4 yards a snap with only the Chiefs averaging more. The Dolphins also lead the league in yards per pass attempt, averaging 8.6 yards per throw. But, a team needs more than a good offense to make a good OVER bet, they also need a bad defense. Luckily for us, that's exactly what they have.

The 'Fins rank 22nd in opponent yards per play and 26th in opponent points per play.

The Texans don't really do anything well, offensively or defensively, so I'm going to rely on the Dolphins offense to score plenty of points and their defense to play poorly enough to allow the Texans to score a few times to contribute to the total.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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