Texans vs. Titans Prediction and Odds for NFL Week 16 (Bet Total in AFC South Matchup)

Dec 18, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) runs with
Dec 18, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) runs with / Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

The Titans AFC South hopes are quickly being turned on its head, now in a heated race with the Jacksonville Jaguars for the division title and a playoff spot.

Tennessee will get a reprieve from a difficult schedule to face the worst team in football in the Houston Texans in Week 16. However, Houston has played tough the past two weeks against a pair of elite teams in the Cowboys and Chiefs, even going to overtime with Kansas City last week.

Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill has an injured ankle, but insists that he's playing. However, the line movement early in the week indicates that he will be severely hobbled or not play at all.

Let's sift through the updated odds and find the best bet for this AFC South matchup:

Texans vs. Titans Odds, Spread and Total

Texans vs. Titans Betting Trends

  • The Texans have lost nine straight outright and are 3-6 against the spread (ATS) in that span
  • The Titans have lost four straight games and are 0-3-1 ATS in that span
  • The Titans are 4-2 ATS as a favorite this season

Texans vs. Titans Prediction and Pick

Derrick Henry has given the Texans fits over his career as our Ben Heisler points out:

The Texans are bottom 10 in defensive rush EPA and will struggle to keep Henry from ripping off chunk plays. However, despite all the success, Houston has moved from touchdown underdogs to +5 against Tennessee. It's likely because Tannehill is nursing an injury that kept him out of part of the team's loss to the Chargers last week.

While Tannehill did return and led a game tying touchdown drive, he only passed for 165 yards and had an interception. Rookie backup Malik Willis has started this season and will only further the Titans capability on the ground, but will that result in winning with margin?

Tennessee's defense is just as banged up, down pass rusher Denico Autry and safety Amani Hooker, among others, last week, and could be without them again on Saturday.

I'm wary of making a bet right now on the side given that there can be further movement in either direction, but I do like the over in this one. We know that the Titans can run all over this Houston rush defense with Henry, but the Titans' defense has slipped considerably, 31st in EPA/Play over their four game losing streak.

Now, they were playing four above average offenses in the Bengals, Eagles, Jaguars and Chargers, but with a banged up unit I think the Texans can find the end zone at least twice and do their part to go over the low total.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.