Texas A&M-Commerce vs. Nicholls Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Southland Tournament Second Round (Go Under)
A big second half helped Texas A&M-Commerce win its matchup over Northwestern State, 69-64, in the first round of the Southland Conference Tournament Sunday night. The Lions, the No. 7 seed in the tournament, will need another strong effort Monday to take out Nicholls.
The Colonels beat the Lions twice during the regular season, including a double-overtime thriller Jan. 27. Nicholls won five of its final six regular-season games to earn the No. 3 seed in the conference tournament. Can they pull away on Monday in Lake Charles? Here’s the betting breakdown of the matchup with a best bet.
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Texas A&M Commerce vs. Nicholls Odds, Spread and Total
Spread
- Texas A&M Commerce: +5
- Nicholls: -5
Moneyline
- Texas A&M Commerce: +170
- Nicholls: -230
Total: 136 (Over -110/Under -110)
Texas A&M Commerce vs. Nicholls Betting Trends
- TAMC is 19-7-1 ATS this season
- Nicholls is 17-11 ATS this season
- TAMC is 9-1 ATS as an underdog this season
- Nicholls is 8-4 ATS as a favorite this season
- The OVER is 13-15 in TAMC games this season
- The OVER is 14-14 in Nicholls games this season
Texas A&M Commerce vs. Nicholls How to Watch
- Date: Monday, March 11
- Game time: 8:30 p.m. EST
- Venue: The Legacy Center
- How to watch (TV): ESPN+
- Texas A&M Commerce record: 13-19
- Nicholls record: 18-13
Texas A&M Commerce vs. Nicholls Key Players to Watch
Texas A&M Commerce
Kalen Williams: The senior guard is the Lions’ leading scorer at 16.5 points per game. Williams had a team-high 19 points on 8-of-15 shooting to go with 4 rebounds in the first-round win over Northwestern State. Williams had 31 points in the last matchup against Nicholls on Feb. 24.
Nicholls
Jamal West Jr.: The 6-foot-6 junior averages 14.1 points per game and grabs a team-high 7.6 rebounds while shooting 51.2% from the field. West is coming off a 22-point, 11-rebound double-double in the regular-season finale in a win over SE Louisiana.
Texas A&M Commerce vs. Nicholls Prediction and Pick
Both teams have been great in this spot with TAMC going 9-1 ATS as an underdog and Nicholls is 8-4 ATS as a favorite. The two clubs have combined to go 36-18-1 ATS this season. So, which team pulls through on Monday?
Instead of trying to get in the way of two ATS machines, trust the defenses in this matchup. Not because they’re elite by any measures, but the offenses in this second-round tilt have struggled mightily. Starting with TAMC, the Lions are No. 334 in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and are No. 330 in effective field goal percentage while shooting just 31.7% from beyond the arc (No. 339). Nicholls’ defense has been stingy, and ranks No. 128 in effective field goal percentage and No. 53 in guarding the perimeter.
Offensively, Nicholls is a top-40 three-point shooting and doesn’t do anything else particularly well. The Colonels have their shots swatted more than anyone in the Southland Conference and are No. 276 in KenPom in shooting from inside the arc. TAMC can counter Nicholls perimeter prowess by wreaking havoc on the Colonels’ guards. TAMC is top-100 in steal percentage and Nicholls is No. 292 in turnover percentage. In a matchup littered with defensive advantages between a pair of sup-par offenses, go with the under.
Pick: UNDER 136
Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.