Texas A&M vs. Alabama Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, Feb. 17 (Trust Big Underdog in SEC Showdown)

Dec 22, 2023; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies head coach Buzz Williams (right)
Dec 22, 2023; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies head coach Buzz Williams (right) / Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

While it seemed like Texas A&M may have turned a corner and secure an NCAA Tournament berth, the team suffered another setback, this time at the buzzer at Vanderbilt. 

Now, the Aggies are back up against it and could use a stunning win at Alabama against the top offense in the country. Can Texas A&M slow this game down and play it at its preferred pace in order to at the very least cover the spread?

Here’s our full betting breakdown for this SEC matchup: 

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Texas A&M vs. Alabama Odds, Spread and Total

Texas A&M vs. Alabama Betting Trends

  • Texas A&M is 4-2 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog
  • Alabama is 15-8-1 ATS this season
  • Alabama has gone OVER in 17 of 24 games this season

Texas A&M vs. Alabama How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, February 17th
  • Game Time: 12:00 PM EST
  • Venue: John Paul Jones Arena
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN
  • Texas A&M Record: 15-9
  • Alabama Record: 17-7

Texas A&M vs. Alabama Key Players to Watch

Texas A&M

Wade Taylor IV: This game is going to fall on Taylor’s shoulders. A microwave scorer that is a terror once he gets downhill, he can slow this game to a crawl with his ability to draw free throws. Taylor is an 82% free throw shooter and Alabama is 299th in opponent free throw rate. 


Mark Sears: Sears is a dynamic scorer from all three levels, and he’ll have his fair share of perimeter looks against Texas A&M’s zone defense. The Aggies are bottom 20 in terms of opponent three-point rate, which goes right into the Crimson Tide’s game plan and especially Sears, who is shooting 44% from beyond the arc.

Texas A&M vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick

This game is a battle of contrasting styles as Texas A&M ranks outside the top 300 in terms of adjusted tempo, per KenPom, while Alabama is 14th in that same metric. 

However, I believe that the Aggies can slow this game down with the ability to win on the glass and stop any transition opportunities. The Aggies are one of the best defenses in the country, and that has shown in SEC play, ranking No. 1 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate. Further, the Aggies don’t turn the ball, second in turnover rate, which means that the team won’t cough up too many opportunities against Alabama, who is middle of the road in terms of rebounding percentage and don’t turn opponents over. 

Texas A&M won’t allow Alabama to run, the team is top third of the country in transition frequency and should be able to generate offense with Taylor and Tyrece Radford running the pick-and-roll, which is the weak point of the Alabama defense. Alabama is bottom half of the country in terms of points per possession allowed, according to Shot Quality. While Texas A&M hasn’t scored effectively in the PNR, the team runs it on nearly a quarter of its possessions. 

The ball will be in Taylor’s hands, and with his ability to draw fouls, I believe he can dictate the pace and slow this game down. 

Of course, Alabama can shoot over the Texas A&M zone and blowout the Aggies, but I think this game will be more of a grind and Buzz Williams’ group can keep this to single digits. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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