Texas A&M vs Alabama Prediction and Odds (Roll with Aggies To Exploit Matchup Advantages)

The 19-10 No. 25 Alabama Crimson Tide bring a two-game winning streak into their matchup with the 18-11 Texas A&M Aggies tonight at 7:00 PM EST.

Alabama has won five of six but is just 1-4 against the spread (ATS) over their last five, while the Aggies have a two-game winning streak of their own going and have covered in three of four.

Does value lie with the Crimson Tide to cover the double-digit spread at home or will the Aggies hang tough against an Alabama team that has struggled to put teams away all year?

Here are the odds via WynnBET:

Texas A&M vs Alabama Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Texas A&M: +10 (-110)
• Alabama: -10 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Texas A&M: +425
• Alabama: -575

Total:

• 152.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Texas A&M vs Alabama Prediction and Pick

Well, what do ya know! We've got a marriage of two of my favorite teams to bet on and against. Alabama has played down to competition all season and is a pitiful 4-16 ATS in their last 20, including 2-14 ATS in their last 16 as a favorite.

The Crimson Tide lack focus on both ends. They're in the 29th percentile in defensive rating and turn the ball over a ton, ranking in the 1st (!!) percentile in turnovers per game over their last five. As a reminder, 100th percentile is good. 1st is bad. Very bad, in fact.

On the other side, we've got a feisty Aggies squad that's 6-3 ATS in their last nine as an underdog and 4-2 in their previous six on the road.

Texas A&M is built to beat Alabama. They rank in the 99th percentile in steals and force turnovers at the 7th-highest rate in the country. Offensively, the Aggies are in the 96th percentile in free throw attempts per game and 99th percentile in free throw shooting percentage over their last five. That's bad news for a Crimson Tide defense that fouls a ton, ranking in the 14th percentile in that category.

This is Alabama's home finale, but with a huge game against LSU coming up this could be a bit of a look-ahead spot. I love the value on A&M to push Alabama to push the Crimson Tide to 2-15 ATS in their last 17 as a favorite.

I'm betting a full unit on A&M +10, but I'll also be putting a half-unit on their moneyline odds of +425. The value is just too good to pass up on a team whose strengths specifically align with Alabama's weaknesses.

Pick: Full unit on Texas A&M +10 and half-unit on +425

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.