Texas A&M vs. Tennessee Prediction and Odds (Fade Vols as Big Favorites)

Dec 22, 2021; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes
Dec 22, 2021; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes / Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Tennessee nearly pulled an incredible comeback at Texas in the final minutes over the weekend, erasing a double digit deficit only to lose by one. Now, they turn their attention back to SEC play as they welcome the Texas A&M Aggies.

A&M comes in losers of four straight, including a deflating loss at home by double digits to South Carolina as 7-point favorites. Now they are in a different spot as double digit underdogs to the vaunted Vols, can they hang around?

Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook.

Texas A&M vs. Tennessee Odds, Spread and Total


  • Texas A&M +11 (-110)
  • Tennessee -11 (-110)


  • Texas A&M +470
  • Tennessee -650

Total: 131.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Texas A&M vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick

After a 15-2 start to the season, Buzz Williams' Aggies have settled into their role as a middling SEC team after dropping four straight to fall to 4-4 in SEC play. The Aggies have played elite competition close though, creating a valuable bet on this one. A&M lost to Kentucky (in overtime), at Arkansas and at LSU by a combined 15 points.

The team was underdogs in all three of those and covered with relative ease before dropping the game as big favorites to South Carolina. Now the team is in a familiar spot as underdogs to a Tennessee team that is fantastic at home.

The Vols are 11-0 in Knoxville this season, winning by an average margin of 11, paced by a top 5 defensive unit. Rick Barnes' team is great on the interior and generating turnovers. They are top 25 in the nation in block rate, steal rate and forcing teams to shoot from the perimeter. The Aggies are average from the perimeter and outside the top 200 in turnover rate which could spell trouble, but I believe their defense can keep them within this number.

Tennessee has been prone to go through dry spells on offense, right in line with the national average in effective field goal percentage and turnover rate. The Aggies are 11th in turnover percentage and also second in the country in potential quick points off breakaway steals per 100 possessions, according to Haslemetrics. Given that this game could be a bit of a rock fight, easy buckets for a big underdog is a big boost.

I make this game closer to Tennessee -9, even with a huge bump to homecourt advantage, so I like the Aggies down to +10.

PICK: Texas A&M +11, play to +10

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 38-37-3 for -1.53 units.