Buzz Williams' Aggies head to Madison Square Garden for the NIT semifinals against Washington State on Tuesday night. Texas A&M is playing their best ball to end the season and look to cap their year off with an NIT Championship.
Can the Cougars pull the slight upset over the surging Aggies?
Let's first check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:
Washington State vs. Texas A&M Odds, Spread and Total
- Washington State +1.5 (-110)
- Texas A&M -1.5 (-110)
- Washington State +105
- Texas A&M -125
Total: 134 (Over -110/Under -110)
Washington State vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick
These are two teams that are looked at favorably in the advanced metrics community, but there is no team hotter than Texas A&M. The team is 14th in adjusted efficiency dating back to February 14th, including 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to Bart Torvik.
The team is top 10 in forcing turnovers and great at defending the perimeter, allowing the 54th lowest 3-point percentage in the country. Matched up with a Wazzu team that loves to hoist from deep (41st highest 3-point rate), the Aggies defense along their 3-point line will be pivotal.
On the other side, the emerging A&M offense will be the key in this one. The team is strong on the offensive glass and getting to the free throw line, ranking top 50 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate this season.
With that being said, Wazzu is elite on defense as well, ranking 26th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric, so the Aggies offense will have to show up. This game should be physical and focused on defense, but I think it's A&M's offense that will be the difference, so I'll go with the small favorite on Tuesday night. This is a team that is playing a high level into the close of the season, and I'm not stepping in front of it.
Williams' team had no issue winning at home against Oregon and Wake Forest by 15 in the past two NIT matchups, so I like them on a neutral to cover the short spread.
LEAN: Texas A&M -1.5
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