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Texas Tech vs. Baylor Prediction and Odds: Bet Baylor to Cover vs. Banged Up Red Raiders

By Matt De Saro

The Baylor Bears are the No. 1 team in the nation and haven't lost a game since last season. That is unlikely to change tonight against Texas Tech.
The Baylor Bears are the No. 1 team in the nation and haven't lost a game since last season. That is unlikely to change tonight against Texas Tech. / Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports
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The No. 19 ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders continue their recent trend of playing ranked opponents when they face the No. 1 Baylor Bears on Tuesday night. It is the third game in a row they will be facing a top 15 team after losing to Iowa State and beating Kansas last week. The bounce-back win over the Jayhawks was impressive and shows that they are capable of beating one of the better teams in the nation. They also beat a ranked Tennesee team in early December. Their only losses this year are to Providence and Gonzaga. Despite their winning record, the Red Raiders are on a five-game road losing streak. 

Baylor, meanwhile, enters this game with a spotless 15-0 overall record and is undefeated in three Big 12 games. In their last game out, the Bears beat TCU 76-64 on the road and covered the 9.5 point spread. It was the Bears’ 21st consecutive win, dating back to last season. 

Here are the odds for this Big 12 brawl, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Texas Tech vs. Baylor Odds, Spread, and Total

Spread:

  • Texas Tech +12 (-110)
  • Baylor -12 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Texas Tech +510
  • Baylor -730

Total: 135 (Over -105/Under -115)

Texas Tech vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick

At this point, it is hard to bet against the Baylor Bears at 15-0, but, their ATS numbers haven’t been all that over the last 15 games. The Bears are 9-5-1 ATS on the season, which is a cover rate of 64.3 percent. At home, they are 6-3, 2-1 ATS against fellow ranked opponents, and 1-2 against other Big 12 teams. 

So, while Baylor is dominating their opponents, they are not covering at a rate that makes me super confident in them to cover here The Bears have just one ATS win in their last four games though it has been close with an average difference of just 2.5 points. 

As far as pitting these two teams head-to-head, both feature above-average defenses that will give headaches to their counterparts on the offensive end of the court. Baylor, however, also has an elite offense that has scored at least 75 points in their last six games on the trot. This will be a test for a Red Raiders defense that ranks fifth in defensive efficiency, 10th in defensive rating, and 12th in overall scoring defense. 

One major knock against the Raiders, and the main reason I am siding with Baylor here, comes down to two key injuries. The team will again be without leading scorer Terrance Shannon Jr. with a back injury. Their second-leading scorer Kevin McCullar is also dealing with an injury. After sitting out against Kansas, his status for tonight is uncertain at the time of writing. The pair combine for around 28 points per game and their contributions will be sorely missed. 

Defensive-first teams are great but they still need to put up some points to win games. With their two leading scorers out and a rather lukewarm depth chart behind them, I think that Baylor continues to dominate and cruises to a double-digit win and cover here. 

Pick: Baylor Bears -12 (-110)

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