Texas Tech vs. Duke Prediction and Odds for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 (Trust Red Raiders' Defense to Prevail)

Texas Tech Red Raiders forward Marcus Santos-Silva celebrates as his team moves on to the Sweet 16 in the West Regional in San Francisco
Texas Tech Red Raiders forward Marcus Santos-Silva celebrates as his team moves on to the Sweet 16 in the West Regional in San Francisco / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The No. 2 Duke Blue Devils found themselves down multiple possessions to the Michigan State Spartans late in the second half Sunday, only to will themselves to the Sweet 16 on a 12-2 run to close the game.

They'll now face a much more daunting task in the No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders when both teams match up in the West Region in San Francisco Thursday evening at 9:39 p.m. ET on CBS.

In a battle between elite offensive and defensive efficiency, which will reign supreme and advance to the Elite Eight?

Here are the odds for this Sweet 16 showdown from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Texas Tech vs. Duke Odds, Spread and Total


  • Texas Tech -1 (-110)
  • Duke +1 (-110)


  • Texas Tech -120
  • Duke +100

Total: 137 (OVER -110| UNDER -110)

Texas Tech vs. Duke Analysis

Texas Tech Red Raiders

  • Overall Record: 27-9
  • ATS Record: 22-14
  • Over/Under Record: 17-19
  • SoS: 3rd
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 110.2 (46)
  • Defensive Efficiency: 84.4 (1)
  • eFG%: 52.7% (61)
  • FT%: 70.0% (233)
  • 3PT%: 32.2% (251)
  • Last Year’s Tournament Result: Second Round
  • Odds to win National Championship: +1200

Duke Blue Devils

  • Overall Record: 30-6
  • ATS Record:18-16-2
  • Over/Under Record: 20-15
  • SoS: 28th
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 120.2 (4)
  • Defensive Efficiency: 95.4 (42)
  • eFG%: 55.9% (10)
  • FT%: 73.4% (116)
  • 3PT%: 37.0% (29)
  • Last Year’s Tournament Result: N/A
  • Odds to win National Championship: +750

Texas Tech vs. Duke Prediction and Pick

Before the NCAA men's tournament began, former Duke assistant coach turned NCAA basketball analyst Chris Spatola joined myself and Reed Wallach on BetSided's "Bet & Breakfast" show to go over the most intriguing matchups in the tournament. One of which was if Tech ended up meeting up against Duke in the Sweet 16, to which all three of us were in large agreement: The Red Raiders' defense and veteran leadership on that team could be a major problem for the Blue Devils.

As Spatola said, the Red Raiders are, "a unicorn defensively" who have multiple players that can guard any position on the court. They also have multiple guys in their MID-20's, not just early college-age 20's. Duke may have some talented freshman that will be in the NBA next year, but that's not going to scare them off.

Texas Tech has the top KenPom adjusted defense rating in the country by a wide margin, and are as equipped as any team to handle Duke's size and length inside, as well as switching out on the perimeter to contest open three-pointers. Basically, if Duke does it well offensively, the Red Raiders are talented enough to neutralize those strengths on the opposite end.

It feels fairly bold when oddsmakers make Duke, a notorious public team a short underdog in the NCAA Tournament. It's also incredibly rare! The Blue Devils have only been an underdog five times in March Madness since 2003.

Mark Adams has already wowed the country after taking over for Chris Beard in his first season in Lubbock. I expect Thursday night to be another "wow" moment with a convincing win vs. the Blue Devils.

PICK: Texas Tech -1 (-110)

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Get the latest Sweet 16 odds, picks and breakdowns of all the March Madness action onBetSided's "Bet & Breakfast" podcast!