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Texas Tech vs. Mississippi State Updated Prediction and Odds for Liberty Bowl

By Reed Wallach

Nov 13, 2021; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Will Rogers (2) changes
Nov 13, 2021; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Will Rogers (2) changes / John Reed-USA TODAY Sports
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Mike Leach and Mississippi State head to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania to face his former team Texas Tech in the Liberty Bowl.

The Bulldogs run their patent 'air raid' offense under Leach, but put together a very impressive season on the defensive side of the ball, holding teams to just 25 points per game this season with a strong defensive line.

Texas Tech floundered this season and fired their coach Matt Wells during the season, so motivation is a question mark here. However, the team did have a few high scoring affairs, averaging 30 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.

Can the Red Raiders keep up in the Liberty Bowl, or will Leach pour it on his former team? here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook.

Texas Tech vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Texas Tech: +9.5 (-110)
  • Mississippi State: -9.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Texas Tech: +280
  • Mississippi State: -360

Total: 58.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech Betting Trends

  • Mike Leach is 3-7 ATS in bowl games
  • Texas Tech went 5-6 ATS this season, 3-5 as underdogs
  • Mississippi State covered five of their last six games to finish the season

Texas Tech vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick

Mississippi State has the advantage on both sides of the ball with Will Rogers running a sound pass-heavy offense that is top five in pass success rate. The Red Raiders pass defense is going to struggle to keep up with a secondary that ranks outside the top 100 in defending the pass this season.

However, with some extra prep, TTU may start strong against 'air raid' and keep this close early. This is a scripted offense that can be solved. I don't believe the Red Raiders have the personnel but can hold up in the first quarter before Rogers gets into a rhythm.

I just can't see Texas Tech keeping up over the course of the game. If and when the Bulldogs take a lead, backup quarterback Donovan Smith is going to struggle to keep up and this game can get out of hand quickly.

I likely won't have a bet on this game pre game, but will look to bet Mississippi State live if they fall behind early or after a slow start as Texas Tech should start out in better shape with extra time to prep for this offense.

LEAN: Mississippi State: -9.5, Mississippi State Team Total Over 34, Live Bet Miss State after 1Q

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