Texas vs. Baylor Prediction and Odds (Longhorns Set Cover Spread)

Feb 7, 2022; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns forward Tre Mitchell (33) and forward Timmy Allen (0)
Feb 7, 2022; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns forward Tre Mitchell (33) and forward Timmy Allen (0) / Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports

Texas scored their biggest win of the season at home against Big 12 leader Kansas in a wire-to-wire thriller.

Now, they look to keep the positive momentum going in Waco against the defending National Champions Baylor on the road. The Bears have been battling injuries for the better part of a month, splitting their last four games, but looked the part on Wednesday at Kansas State, winning 75-60.

Who has the edge in this Big 12 showdown? Here are the projected odds for Saturday's matchup:

Texas vs. Baylor Odds, Spread and Total


  • Texas: +5 (-110)
  • Baylor: -5 (-110)


  • Texas: N/A
  • Baylor: N/A

Total: 129

Texas vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick

The Longhorns are starting to round into form and should be able to apply pressure on the perimeter against a Baylor offense that is struggling to protect the ball amidst injuries.

James Akinjo has been in and out of the lineup while LJ Cryer has missed the team's last four games. Baylor is outside the top 200 nationally in turnover percentage and Chris Beard's team is causing them at a top 10 rate.

However, the Bears have the much more physical frontcourt and should be able to bully the Longhorns down low and on the glass. With that being said, the visitors are starting to play their best of the ball of the season at the right time and have positive momentum after a big win over Kansas.

The team is ranked 10th in ShotQuality's adjusted metrics and I believe that the team is set to hang around against a Baylor team that is still trying to handle some injury issues. I make this game close to Baylor -4 and the Bears poor free throw shooting can play a role late (67% as a team). I like the Longhorns to hang tough on the road and cover at over two buckets.

LEAN: Texas +5.5

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 57-46-3 for +8.7 units.