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Texas vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Monday, March 4 (Back Longhorns as underdogs)

By Reed Wallach

Texas longhorns forward Dylan Disu (1) and guard Max Abmas (3) celebrate a score during the
Texas longhorns forward Dylan Disu (1) and guard Max Abmas (3) celebrate a score during the / Aaron E. Martinez/American-Statesman /
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Texas and Baylor finish a season series that went down to the wire in January in the first meeting.

The Longhorns won at the buzzer at home, but since then the team has failed to turn the corner and become a true contender in the Big 12. The team is now on the road to face a Baylor team that is off a road win against TCU and a home win against Kansas in its last two. Is this setting up for another home win for the Bears?

We'll answer that below with our full betting preview!

Texas vs. Baylor Odds, Spread and Total

Baylor vs. Texas Betting Trends

  • Baylor is 17-10-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Texas is 11-18 ATS this season
  • Baylor is 10-5-1 ATS this season at home
  • Texas has gone OVER in 17 of 29 games this season

Texas vs. Baylor How to Watch

  • Date: Monday, March 4th
  • Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Foster Pavilion
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN
  • Texas Record: 19-10
  • Baylor Record: 21-8

Texas vs. Baylor Key Players to Watch

Texas

Tyrese Hunter: In the first meeting, it was Hunter who shined for the Longhorns, scoring 21 points and hitting four threes in the two-point win. Now, the series flips to Waco, where the Longhorns need all hands on deck, including Hunter, who has scored only 13 points over the last two games. Can he find his form against the Bears defense?

Baylor

Yves Missi: The freshman big man is starting to come into his own, fresh off 17 points at home against Kansas. The Bears have begun to lean on a zone defense that has Missi patrolling the paint even more, upping its rim protection numbers and the seven-footer has excelled in that role while also dominating inside on offense. For what it's worth, he only played 21 minutes and had four fouls in the first meeting.

Texas vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick

Baylor is 7-3 in the last 10 games, thanks to scorching three-point shooting (39%) on a sky-high rate (43% three-point rate) that has offset some turnover concerns and continuing defensive issues. The Bears are 324th in turnover rate over the last month while posting the 278th-best effective field goal percentage.

The Bears are incredibly reliant on the three-point shot and getting to the free throw line, 12th in free throw rate over the last 10 games. However, Texas may have the ability to bring this Bears' offense back down to Earth.

Texas has shut off the perimeter for opponents, is 25th in opponent three-point rate over the last nine games, and doing an above-average job of pressuring the ball. While the team has been middling in terms of its perimeter shooting, the team has upped its production on the defensive side of the ball with the introduction of Chendall Weaver to the rotation.

The Longhorns are vulnerable in transition, but Baylor doesn't push the ball at all, ranking 301st in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. Meanwhile, Texas is more than willing to push and beat the Bears' defense down the floor, second in points per possession in transition, per ShotQuality.

I believe Texas can keep this game competitive in what may be more of a half-court battle. I'll take the points.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!

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