Texas vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 4

A full betting preview for the Big 12 opener between the Texas Longhorns and Baylor Bears.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3)
Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) / Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports

It almost happened. The No. 6 Texas Longhorns almost blew it right when they were finally “back.” After beating Alabama in Week 2, the Longhorns went into the fourth quarter of their Week 3 matchup with Wyoming tied at 10. Then, they promptly ripped off three unanswered touchdowns for a 31-10 victory. 

This Texas team has a lot of talent, but they can’t have another lackluster performance like that one and win in the Big 12. Except maybe in their conference opener against the 1-2 Baylor Bears.

Baylor’s only win of the season came against Long Island last week and the Longhorns are favored by two scores. For a wider look at college football in Week 4, check out BetSided college football betting analyst Reed Wallach’s weekly column and preview. 

If you’re betting Week 4 of the CFB season, do it with the DraftKings Sportsbook. To take advantage of their promo, just click the link below to sign up, then deposit $5 and place a bet on this Big 12 contest to collect $200 in bonus bets instantly and more, win or lose.

Now, here are the odds for Texas and Baylor from Waco. 

Texas vs. Baylor Odds, Spread and Total

Baylor vs. Texas Betting Trends

  • Baylor is 0-2-1 ATS
  • The UNDER is 2-1 in Baylor games
  • Texas is 1-2 ATS
  • The UNDER is 2-1 in Texas games

Texas vs. Baylor How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, September 23
  • Time: 7:30 PM EST
  • Venue: McLane Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): ABC
  • Texas Record: 3-0
  • Baylor Record: 1-2

Texas vs. Baylor Key Players to Watch


Jonathan Brooks, RB: Quinn Ewers didn’t seem to have it for much of Week 3 against Wyoming. So, instead of a dominant passing attack, the Longhorns leaned on the run-game. Brooks carried the ball 21 times and went for 164 yards. For the season he is averaging 5.8 yards per carry and provides some much needed balance. 


Richard Reese, RB: Last week against Long Island, Reese didn’t see the lion’s share of the carries, but he will against Texas. For the season, Reese has rushed for 117 yards on 26 carries and has scored twice. Those numbers aren’t eye popping, but considering he rushed for 972 yards and 14 touchdowns last season, I’d expect him to be featured more in Big 12 play. 

Texas vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick

Even against Long Island last week, Baylor’s offense didn’t impress. Sawyer Robertson threw for just 113 yards and a touchdown on 10-for-22 passing. Their starting quarterback, Blake Shapen, is not expected to play again this week. 

Baylor will need to rely heavily on the run-game like they did in Week 3 with 270 yards on the ground. Alabama wanted to do the same thing, but Texas is only giving up 2.9 yards per carry this year and even Bama rushed for just 107 yards. Texas is 33rd in run defense and only giving up 4.6 yards per play this year. 

On the other side of the ball, Texas hasn’t exactly been elite. The Longhorns are 56th in yards per play at 6.1 only five spots ahead of Baylor who are gaining 6.0 yards per play.

The Longhorns are 76th in rushing offense and 49th through the air. They also aren’t playing at a particularly fast pace, just 68th in plays per game, so even with all their speed at receiver, Xavier Worthy and AD Mitchell, Steve Sarkisian’s offense isn’t going to hang 50 points on many teams. 

Quinn Ewers isn’t pushing the ball downfield, he’s only averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and completing 60.7% of his passes. None of his top three wide receivers, Worthy Mitchell, and Jordan Whittington are averaging over 15.0 yards per reception. 

Baylor will match the methodical pace of Texas, the Bears are 69th in plays per game, so I’ll take the under in Waco. The under is 9-1 in the last 10 head-to-head matchups between these two teams. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change