Betsided

Texas vs. Iowa State Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 12

By Reed Wallach

Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) warms up ahead of the game against Texas Christian
Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) warms up ahead of the game against Texas Christian / Aaron E. Martinez/American-Statesman /
facebooktwitterreddit

Texas doesn't have a direct path to the College Football Playoff, but it does to the Big 12 title game: win its remaining two games.

The first game of the duet is a road game at Iowa State, which has an outside shot at making the title game as well, resurrecting its year-round freshman Rocco Becht at quarterback. Texas got Quinn Ewers back from injury last week, and the team held off TCU at home. Can the team take care of business on the road?

Here are the odds and our best bet for this Big 12 showdown.

If you want to get some bonus credits while betting on this game, sign up for DraftKings Sportsbook below! If you sign up below, you'll get $150 in bonus bets as well as a no-sweat single-game parlay on a first bet of $5 on any moneyline!

Texas vs. Iowa State Odds, Spread and Total

Iowa State vs. Texas Betting Trends

  • Texas is 4-6 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Iowa State is 6-4 ATS this season
  • Texas has gone UNDER in eight of 10 games this season
  • Iowa State has gone UNDER in three of four games as an underdog this season

Texas vs. Iowa State How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, November 8th
  • Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Jack Trice Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): FOX
  • Texas Record: 9-1
  • Iowa State Record: 6-4

Texas vs. Iowa State Key Players to Watch

Texas

Quinn Ewers: Ewers returned from a shoulder injury last week against TCU, completing 21-of-32 passes for 323 yards with a touchdown pass and interception. The Texas offense has been rock solid all season, but not overwhelming, 35th in EPA/Play and 73rd in success rate, and now won't have star running back and 1,000-yard rusher Jonathon Brooks for the rest of the season due to a torn ACL. There will be more pressure on Ewers than ever.

Iowa State

Rocco Becht: After a rough transition early on, Becht has pushed the Cyclones into Big 12 contention with a budding and explosive passing game. The Cyclones are top 50 in EPA/Pass behind Becht's fine play, a 66% completion percentage with 2,084 yards, and 15 touchdown passes with only four interceptions.

Texas vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick

Iowa State is going to try and muddy this game up and hit a handful of explosive plays to stun Texas and ruin the teams' chances to make the College Football Playoff. The Cyclones play at the 12th slowest pace in college football this season in terms of plays per minute and are top 25 in explosive play rate.

Texas is a formidable defensive line that is 20th in tackles for loss, eighth in defensive line yards, and allows about three yards per game. However, the team is bottom half of the country in terms of explosive play rate. The secondary can be had, but down-to-down, this is an elite defense.

I believe the Longhorns will do a good job against Becht and this fairly one-dimensional offense, but I'm not sure I trust the Longhorns to get margin on the road against a stout ISU defense that is top 15 in passing success rate allowed and 21st in overall success rate.

The Longhorns are below the national average in terms of explosive play rate and 46th in success rate. Now, the team has a quarterback still working his way back from a shoulder injury and lost its starting running back. Iowa State's 3-3-5 defense is great at limiting big plays and forcing teams to go the length of the field.

I believe this game can become a defensive struggle under the lights in Ames and play on Iowa State's terms. With that being said, I'd prefer to take the under than the side.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!

Home/NCAAF Picks