Texas vs. TCU Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 11
By Reed Wallach
Texas survived a scare against Kansas State, nearly blowing a double-digit lead but finishing it off with an overtime victory.
The Longhorns are still competing for a College Football Playoff berth with only one loss on the year, and now take its talents to Fort Worth to face TCU in hopes of avenging a late-season loss to the Horned Frogs last season.
This TCU team is far from the group that went to the National Championship game last season, now fighting for bowl eligibility with backup quarterback Josh Hoover in line to start again.
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Texas vs. TCU Odds, Spread and Total
TCU vs. Texas Betting Trends
- TCU is 3-6 against the spread (ATS) this season
- Texas is 4-5 ATS this season
- TCU hasn't covered either time its been an underdog
- Texas has gone UNDER in seven of nine games this season
- TCU has gone UNDER in six of nine games
Texas vs. TCU How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, November 11th
- Game Time: 7:30 PM EST
- Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): ABC
- Texas Record: 8-1
- TCU Record: 4-5
Texas vs. TCU Key Players to Watch
Texas
Maalik Murphy: Murphy started strong against Kansas State, but some untimely turnovers ruined what was an overall positive performance for the freshman. He completed only 51% of his passes but did showcase his arm strength, compiling 248 yards on 19 completions. While some issues were notable like two interceptions, the hope is that he can keep the Longhorns offense on track for at least one more week with Quinn Ewers close to returning but maybe another week away.
TCU
Josh Hoover: Hoover has started the Horned Frogs last three games, two of which were losses, but he has shown a gun slinger mentality, attempting 58, 43 and 52 passes with five touchdowns and five interceptions in that start. He'll face a very sturdy Texas defense that has the best defensive line in the Big 12, but I expect Hoover to try and make plays yet again.
Texas vs. TCU Prediction and Pick
When Texas has been projected to win big, the team has somewhat suffocated its opponents and it has led to low-scoring outputs. I wouldn't say blindly follow this trend, but Texas has gone under in seven of eight games that it's been favored in. The only time it went over was last week in overtime against Kansas State.
While Hoover has thrown nine turnover-worthy plays to five big-time throws according to Pro Football Focus, which could give the Longhorns a few short fields, I believe that Texas tries to play its role as a dominant favorite in a somewhat uneventful game.
The Texas defensive line is 21st in tackles for loss and seventh in defensive line yards while allowing just about three yards per carry. Further, the team is nails in the red zone, allowing only 30% of opponents drives inside the 20 to go for a touchdown, the third-best mark in the nation.
Meanwhile, assuming Ewers can't play again and its Murphy, the Longhorns may continue to pound away on the ground against a lackluster TCU defense.
I expect a Texas stranglehold on Saturday on the road and for this game to go under the total.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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