The 96th Academy Awards (Best Bets for the Oscars)
By Todd Moser
In most Oscar years, and particularly most recently, the delicate geniuses of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, “The Academy,” do not like to follow. They would rather lead when voting for Best Picture.
That usually means the SAGs, the BAFTAs, the Critics Choices, the Golden Globes, etc. go one way, and The Academy goes another. When I look back at the past 13 winners, I’d say only two of the clear favorites won.
In 2010 and 2013, The King’s Speech and 12 Years A Slave each won Best Picture as a heavy favorite, so it has been a long while. Well, folks, I think “Oppenheimer” will end the long streak.
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Best Bets for the 96th Academy Awards Top Six Oscar Categories
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Da’ Vine Joy Randolph for “The Holdovers” -2000
This was a purported two-horse race between Randolph and Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), but Randolph has swept awards season thus far. She should add an Oscar to her trophy case.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Robert Downey, Jr. for “Oppenheimer” -2400
It is hard to fathom that this former goofball in movies like “Back to School” has risen to the top of his craft but his portrayal of Lewis Strauss is simply top-notch. RDJ is the clear favorite here having also swept the awards season thus far.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Cillian Murphy for “Oppenheimer” -1600
I’ll admit it. I’ve never seen any of Murphy’s prior movies, but his role as an important historical figure in a likely Best Picture winner land him as the favorite over Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), especially after winning the SAG and BAFTA awards.
Best Director
Christopher Nolan for “Oppenheimer” -4000
Oddly, Nolan has never won a Best Director Oscar in his 15-year history. You used to be able to count on The Academy pairing Best Picture and Best Director, but that’s not the case anymore; however, I think it returns to its roots and gives Nolan his first Oscar.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Lily Gladstone for “Killers of the Flower Moon” -240
Unlike some of the other categories, this is a very close race between Gladstone and the other Stone (Emma). Stone won the BAFTA and Critics Choice, and Gladstone won the SAG. Emma has won an Oscar already, and I think Gladstone being a minority (Oscar loves a Cinderella story) gives her the slight edge. No Native American has ever won an Oscar, and I think history will be made here.
Best Picture
Oppenheimer -8000
Opp is the heaviest of favorites. As I said earlier, it has been a while since such a heavy favorite has won. My particular favorite this year is “Past Lives,” but it has no chance against this juggernaut. Opp checks all the Oscar boxes. This is a movie that is a true story with historical significance in a wartime era that involves a historically important American figure. It has swept awards season. I’d be shocked if another picture wins. The only way to make some money here is to parlay with the other five categories.
Bonus Best Bets for the 96th Academy Awards
Best Writing for Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall -270
On the surface, this is an open race between Anatomy, The Holdovers, and Past Lives. This is a head over heart prediction for me and perhaps The Academy as well. Justine Triet got a Best Director nomination while the others didn’t. Anatomy won the BAFTA. Edge to Anatomy.
Best Writing for Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction -195
I’m going for the upset here over heavily favored Oppenheimer. This is another three-way race with Barbie and Opp being in the mix. Surprisingly AF won the most recent BAFTA over Oppenheimer. I think it can happen again. Here’s a chance to make some money with the underdog.
Best Film Editing, Best Cinematography, Best Score
Oppenheimer, Oppenheimer, Oppenheimer -480, -1050, -1200
Simply put, Oppenheimer is King. Use these in a parlay with the other predicted Oppenheimer winners.
Best Documentary Feature Film
20 Days in Mariupol -750
Last year’s winner in this category, Navalny, covered the Ukraine/Russia conflict. 20 Days also follows its predecessor covering the early days of the war. I think it follows Navalny with an Oscar.
Best Original Song
“What Was I Made For” by Billie Eilish and Finneas for Barbie -550
I think Barbie will be largely snubbed this year, but it has its best chance at an Oscar in this category. The Academy seems to love Billie Eilish who won previously in this category for “No Time to Die.” Her live performance with her brother Finneas was flawless. I think the pair repeat this year.
Best International Feature
Zone of Interest -1800
“Zone” follows Coda, Parasite, Minari, and Roma in being nominated for this International AND Best Picture awards from the various academies. Like Oppenheimer, it is based on a hugely important and somewhat related historical event during World War II.