The Bills, Not the Packers, are the Best Team Heading into NFL Playoffs

On this morning's episode of Bet & Breakfast, I claimed that the Buffalo Bills are, analytically and statistically, the best team in the NFL heading into the playoffs.

A few people took to Twitter to disagree with my take, so I figured I had to dive into this a little bit more in an attempt to prove my point.

I'm a statistics-driven handicapper. I bet based on stats and analytics because those are the only things you can actually measure and point to as objective facts. Sure, things like motivation and other intangibles certainly exist and have an impact on the outcome of the game, but we can't actually measure them. When we use them to justify a bet, it's assumptions and guess-work at best.

Buffalo Bills Top Almost Every Statistic

When I say that the Bills are the best statistical team heading into the postseason, here are the numbers that I'm referring to:

• 1st in Net Yards Per Play (+1.23)
• 1st in Average Scoring Margin (+11.4)
• 3rd in 3rd down offense (46.4%)
• 1st in 3rd down defense (30.84%)
• 2nd in DVOA
• 3rd in points per game (28.4)
• 1st in opponent points per game (17)

I think it's safe to say that all of those are extremely important statistics in measuring how good a team is, and the Bills rank first in most of them, but top three in all of them.

Green Bay Packers Regular Season Stats

Let's compare those numbers above to the Packers' numbers, who are the current betting favorites to win the Super Bowl (+375 at WynnBET), and who are the best team in the NFL in many people's opinions.

• 10th in Net Yards Per Play (+0.46)
• 10th in Average Scoring Margin (+4.6)
• 9th in 3rd down offense (43.56%)
• 23rd in 3rd down defense (42.86%)
• 9th in DVOA
• 10th in points per game (26.5)
• 13th in opponent points per game (21.8)

If you want to argue intangibles, like how the Bills have let a few big games slip away this season, or how Buffalo weather could be an issue for them in their Wild Card weekend game against the Patriots, those are all fair points. Or if you want to say their lack of running game will hurt them in the playoffs, I wouldn't disagree with that point either.

On the flip side, if you want to argue that Aaron Rodgers' playoff experience and MVP-winning arm will lead them to a championship, or that it's hard to win at Lambeau Field, than those are certainly points you could make.

But that doesn't make my claim untrue. The Bills, on a statistical level, are the best team in the NFL heading into the postseason, and that includes the team with the best record in the league, the Packers.