The BMW Championship Power Rankings: Top 10 Golfers to Bet on at Castle Pines
By Todd Moser
Last week, I outsmarted myself by removing Hideki Matsuyama from our Top 10 after learning of his caddie’s robbery in London. As a result, it was a losing week.
This week, the field has been reduced to the Top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings, and although last week was a bust, we gave you a name that nobody was talking about. He finished T-7, and now everyone is talking about him this week. Who is he and where does he rank this week? Let’s find out.
The BMW Championship at Castle Pines Power Rankings
I don’t know what’s wrong with Rory McIlroy’s game or mental state, but I’m leaving him out. Hopefully, I won’t regret it.
10. Tommy Fleetwood +2500
Last week’s number three moves down to 10 this week after a less than inspiring T-22 last week. That leaves Fleetwood at the precarious number 31 in the FedEx Cup standings. He needs to move up a spot if he wants to play the finale next week. I’m not convinced he can win this week, but he should play well enough to get into the Top 30.
9. Collin Morikawa +1400
Like Fleetwood, Morikawa finished T-22 last week. He hasn’t had a Top 15 finish in his last three events which gives me pause; however, he does have six Top 5s this year. His problem remains final round scoring where he ranks 110th.
8. Robert MacIntyre +6600
Last week, we took MacIntyre at +9000 saying the odds were too good to pass up. This week, the two-time winner’s odds have dropped to +6600 due to his T-7 finish last week. He continues to play well, and I see no worse than another Top 10 finish.
7. Patrick Cantlay +1800
We still await Cantlay’s first win of the year. He’s been close. He has two thirds and four Top 10s this year. Last week, he finished T-12 and is a popular pick to win this week. He does seem to elevate his game during the playoffs.
6. Tony Finau +3300
Our pick to win last week drops to sixth this week. Finau briefly appeared on the leaderboard, but a flat weekend left him at T-16. He is used to playing in altitude being from Utah. He has four Top 16s out of his last five events including three Top 10s.
5. Viktor Hovland +1800
Last week’s co-runner up fooled us all. Hovland seemed lost between his old swing and his new one before the unexpected break-out at the St. Jude’s. I had given up on him, but the defending FedEx Cup chap seems like he wants to defend his crown. I’ll give him one last shot.
4. Billy Horschel +3300
I’ll admit it. I’m stubborn. Horschel remains in our Top Five for the fourth consecutive tournament in which he’s played. Last week, I picked BillyHo to finish second and he finished T-10. He’s still playing well, and like Cantlay, he seems to like the playoffs. He won the FedEx Cup in 2014.
3. Scottie Scheffler +350
Scheffler is naturally the favorite to win this week. He’s coming off a solo fourth finish after an emotional win at the Paris Olympics. Last year, he blew a big lead and lost the FedEx Cup to Rory McIlroy. I think he wants it perhaps too much as he was visibly angry at missing putts last week. That’s rare for him. I think he needs to take an emotional page from his round one playing companion (see below) if he’s going to win.
2. Xander Shauffele +600
Scottie and X continue their battle for the Cup. If not for a big comeback by Hideki Matsuyama, X might have put a huge dent in Scheffler’s points lead. Schauffele rallied to finish T-2 with a final round 63 and looked as cool as a cucumber in doing so. I think Scottie’s basic collapse in last year’s finale is a plus for Xander. I think there’s less pressure on him. The golf world certainly expects another showdown this week.
1. Wyndham Clark +2500
Here’s the answer to our trivia question and our surprising pick to win this week. We told you to watch out for Clark last week who was flying completely under the radar at +5000. No such luck this week. The cat is out of the bag after his strong T-7 finish including a final round 64. As a result, his odds are cut in half this week.
The clincher for me is that Clark is the native son this week. He won just about every big junior tournament there was growing up in Denver, Colorado. This week seems to be the perfect homecoming for him.
Longshot Plays at The BMW Championship at Castle Pines
As was the case last week, there’s motivation other than winning this week, and that is to either stay or get into the Top 30 to be able to play next week. I think these guys (current rank indicated) will have that extra motivation.
Sam Burns (18th) +2800
Burns is safe to advance to the finale. I have him 11th in my rankings this week. Last week, we had him ranked ninth, and he had a chance to win before rinsing his approach on the 71st hole. This followed his epic Olympics final round 80 collapse. Burns looks good after 54 holes. Can he extend that to 72?
Jason Day (25th) +2500
It would take some stellar play to knock Day out of the Top 30. Nevertheless, I think he knows he has to play well to guarantee a spot in next week’s finale. The plus for him this week is that he’s the only player in the field who played in the last event hosted at Castle Pines.
Corey Conners (33rd) +4500
Conners has to step it up this week if he wants to play next week. He certainly didn’t improve his chances after a lackluster T-50 finish last week. That ended a streak of 10 consecutive events of finishing no worse than 27th. He also wants to make the President’s Cup team. I like the motivating factors for him this week.
Will Zalatoris (37th) +5500
Like Connors, Zalatoris needs a high finish to advance to the playoff finale. But unlike Connors, Willy Z played well last week finishing T-12 which allowed him to get into this week’s event. It’s been a lost year for him, and I don’t see the season ending just yet.
Austin Eckroat (38th) +9000
Eckroat is in the same boat as Conners and Zalatoris needing a huge finish to advance to the playoff finale. I took a look at the long odds, and he was my choice to make this list. He’s played well in his last two events including a T-18 last week and a solo sixth at the Wyndham. Good form and motivation are a good combination.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.