The Chiefs are Historic Favorites vs. the Steelers in the Super Wild Card Round
By Ben Heisler
Back in Week 16, the Kansas City Chiefs closed as 10-point home favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers and beat them up at Arrowhead Stadium by a 36-10 final.
Now, three games later, oddsmakers are hanging an even longer number on the Chiefs to cover in the Super Wild Card round of the postseason.
Oddsmakers at WynnBET have posted a historic line for the Sunday night matchup between the No. 7 seeded Steelers and No. 2 seeded Chiefs; opening as 13-point favorites.
According to Clev Analytics, the opening line (of either 12.5 of 13) is the largest spread in NFL history for a Wild Card game, passing the New Orleans Saints 11-point number last year as the No. 2 seed in the NFC against the No. 7 seed Chicago Bears. The Saints squeaked out a 21-9 cover over the Bears in the matchup.
Is 13 Points Too Many for the Chiefs vs. Mike Tomlin and the Steelers?
I know the last result is not ideal for Steelers' spread backers, but I'm going to go there and state publicly that I expect this matchup to be a closer one than from back in Week 16.
Roethlisberger is playing with house money after Sunday's chaos that featured the Jacksonville Jaguars winning outright as 15-point underdogs vs. the Indianapolis Colts, as well as the Chargers and Raiders not resulting in a tie.
Furthermore, we have to discuss Mike Tomlin's long record of success in covering the spread in spots just like this.
Over his career, Tomlin since 2007, is 47-25-3 as an underdog, covering 65.3% of his games. Furthermore, Tomlin is the only coach during that time to have a winning record as an underdog; going 38-37-0 during that time.
This season, Tomlin and the Steelers have gone 6-5 straight up as a dog, and 7-4-0 against the spread as an underdog.
It will be a serious challenge to slow down the Chiefs high-powered offense, but Tomlin's history suggests he's the coach that can at least keep it within a manageable distance.