The Cognizant Classic Odds and Best Bets (How to Bet at PGA National This Week)
By Todd Moser
Last week, we had a couple of scares with our longshots as Alvaro Ortiz (+50000) was tied for the lead at the halfway point before finishing a respectable T-13, and Cristobol Del Solar had the FRL of the early wave before being passed up by Erik Van Rooyen. The week was salvaged with a live bet on Jake Knapp at +1600.
This week, the PGA Tour begins the Florida Swing for the Cognizant (previously known as the Honda) Classic at the PGA National Champions Course in Palm Beach Gardens, FL.
For those playing this week, it’s the beginning of the drive toward The Masters in early April. Rory McIlroy is the heavy favorite, but I think he will be fine tuning his game towards said Masters. I think we just might have another longish shot winner this week.
So let’s take some longshots in the Lucky Seven (plus two).
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The Cognizant Classic at PGA National Picks
Russell Henley (+2500)
Form: Henley has a T-4 but that was way back in week two. His last start was at The Genesis two weeks ago where he finished T-24.
Horse for course: In his last seven starts here, he has a win, a T-3, and a T-8. Ball strikers are required, and Henley certainly qualifies.
Stats: Gotta be honest. Nothing stands out here. His ball striking stats are higher than one would think. He is ranked 91st in strokes gained on approaching the green and only 85th in GIR. Strokes gained off the tee, he ranks 104th, total driving 150th, and total putting only 67th. On the positive side, he ranks 17th in strokes gained around the green and 16th in scrambling.
Local Ties: A Georgia boy through and through. Born in Georgia, attended Georgia, and lives in Georgia. He’s used to Bermuda greens.
Odds: He’s amongst the favorites in a wide-open field. Pretty low odds for him.
Ben An (+2800) FRL (+4000)
Form: He started out hot with an opening T-4 at The Sentry and lost us a +4000 win with a short miss in a playoff loss. His last event two weeks ago was at The Genesis where he finished T-16.
Horse for course: In four starts, he has a T-4 and a T-5.
Stats: An has some all-around solid stats so far this year. He’s ranked 19th in total strokes gained, 21st in strokes gained tee-to-green, 31st in GIR, 28th in strokes gained around-the-green, 54th in putts per round, and 13th in scoring average.
Local Ties: Although originally from South Korea, he went to Cal Berkely and lives in Orlando.
Odds: Consistent play has his odds continuing to decrease. I’m going to bite one more time.
Shane Lowry (+3300) FRL (+4500)
Form: Not much to show here. Lowry has only three starts with his best being a T-25 at The Farmers in week three.
Horse for course: In his last two starts here, Lowry has a T-5 and a solo second which is the main reason he’s on the card.
Stats: He’s drove the ball OK but hasn’t done much else. He’s ranked 15th in driving accuracy, 58th in strokes gained off-the-tee, and 38th in total driving. However, he only ranks 147th in GIR, 134th in scrambling, and ranks in the 100s in 10 putting categories.
Local Ties: The big Irishman now lives in Jupiter, FL so he’s playing a stone’s throw away from home.
Odds: He hasn’t done much. Hasn’t played much so we are getting a nice bounce on his odds.
Daniel Berger (+4000)
Form: I mentioned during the WM Phoenix Open that it was probably too early to pick Berger which it was. He played ok and finished T-28 which was an improvement over his missed cut at The Farmers and the T-39 at The Amex. He’s my pick to win this week. If he doesn’t get it this week, I think he will pick it up during this Florida Swing.
Horse for course: Berger is playing practically in his back yard. He has a second and two fourths here.
Stats: Some good and some bad. He ranks 48th in strokes gained off-the-tee, 15th in driving accuracy percentage, 51st in GIR, and ranks in the top 10 in three approach categories; however, on the putting side, he ranks in the 100s in 12 categories.
Local Ties: A home event for this FSU grad.
Odds: Berger is going to start putting things in order on the Florida Swing. I think these are great odds.
Sepp Straka (+4000)
Form: It has been hit or miss for Straka so far this year. T-12, cut, T-26, cut. So, he’s due for a good tournament, right?
Horse for course: Straka became a household name after he won here in 2022. He also finished T-5 last year.
Stats: He’s got the goods to put in another good performance at PGA National if he can handle the Bermuda greens. He is ranked 23rd in driving accuracy percentage and 23rd in GIR but hasn’t handled the West Coast greens very well. He is ranked in the 100s in 13 putting categories.
Local Ties: He was born in Austria but grew up in Georgia. He is another Bulldog form Georgia and currently lives in Birmingham, AL.
Odds: Pretty favorable odds for a recent champ.
Rickie Fowler (+6600)
Form: Fowler has regressed since his big victory last year. I’ve watched him and he’s been very inconsistent. Maybe some home cooking will get him back on track. I picked him to win in Phoenix and he missed the cut. In five starts, he has two cuts, a 56, a T-47, and a T-35 in his last event at The Genesis.
Horse for course: Another Jupiter boy, Rickie is also playing in his back yard. He’s had success here, but it’s been a while. He won here in 2017 and finished T-6 and T-4 in 2016 and 2015.
Stats: Dreadful like his form. Let’s just cut to the chase. He ranks in the 100s in 75 stat categories. That’s downright scary.
Local Ties: Another Jupiter boy playing basically in his back yard.
Odds: His odds are deserved, but those taking the risk are getting a huge upside.
Lucas Glover (+8000)
Form: Last year’s star of the summer has not shown that form thus far. In four starts, Glover’s best is a T-29 in the opening week at The Sentry.
Horse for course: Glover is another ball striker, so you think he’d be suited for this course. In his last nine starts here, he has three top 20s with his best being a T-4 in 2019.
Stats: Unlike Rickie, there are some positives. Glover ranks 17th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 21st in driving accuracy percentage, 25th in strokes gained on approaching the green, 35th in GIR, 22nd in par four scoring, and 41st in birdie average. But like most on our list, he ranks in the 100s in 16 categories.
Local Ties: Lucas is a Carolina (South) man. He was born there and went to Clemson, but he is now a local South Florida guy who resides in the Jupiter, FL area.
Odds: This guy was a common favorite last summer and now look at these odds. If he can make some putts…
Last Man Out
Stephan Jaeger (+4000)
(Long)shot in the Dark Picks
CT Pan (+12500) FRL (+9000)
Pan is in good form and has played well here. He has four top 20s including a T-3 in 2021.
Camillo Villegas (+35000) FRL (+17500)
This fellow Gator won this tournament back in 2010 but not on this course. He has quite a story. He lost his daughter to a brain tumor in 2020 and fell all the way to 1,015 in the World Rankings. After winning in Bermuda last year, he has secured his card for this year and has an invite to The Masters and is now ranked 152nd. Yeah, OK, it’s a sentimental pick for me.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.