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The Daily Dinger: Best Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Monday, April 11

By Ben Heisler, Iain MacMillan, Peter Dewey, Reed Wallach

New Atlanta Braves 1B Matt Olson has already gone yard early in the season and has a very favorable matchup at home vs. the Washington Nationals.
New Atlanta Braves 1B Matt Olson has already gone yard early in the season and has a very favorable matchup at home vs. the Washington Nationals. / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
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Throughout the season, our BetSided team will put our collective heads together and share our favorite picks across Major League Baseball for our favorite picks to go deep on that slate of games.

While WynnBET Sportsbook does not offer home run odds for specific players, you can still bet on all these games as well as several other prop bet opportunities to cash in on.

Odds shown are consensus.

Home Run Picks for Monday, April 11

Matt Olson (+270)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+280)
Jesus Aguilar (+380)
Kyle Schwarber (+215)

Matt Olson (+270)

The Atlanta Braves have one of the hottest hitters in baseball in Matt Olson, as he’s already homered and is hitting .571 through the first four games of the 2022 season. Tonight, Olson and the Braves will take on the Washington Nationals and starter Josh Rogers, who was called up to replace the injured Anibal Sanchez.

Rogers appeared in six games for the Nats last season and allowed seven homers in those games. He was also tagged for two homers in 7.1 innings in Spring Training this year.

Olson is red hot right now, and I wouldn't be shocked if he takes advantage of a borderline major league pitcher in this game. -- Peter Dewey

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+280)

A popular pick for me this season is going to be my guy Vlad. Especially when he faces Yankees starter, Jameson Taillon.

He has a .429 batting average against Taillon in his career, including one dinger in seven plate appearances against him last year.

Look for Guerrero Jr. to hit a bomb tonight. -- Iain MacMillan

Jesus Aguilar (+380)

Let's bank on some regression on Monday with one of the biggest bats in all of baseball to get hot in Los Angeles. Aguilar had one hit on the road to start the season against the Giants but is set to face a porous Angels pitching staff that sends out Michael Lorenzen, a career reliever with an ERA north of 4.

Aguilar has a career hard hit rate north of 40% and the Angels stadium has a bottom 10 home run rate per Baseball Savant (meaning this ball park allows more home runs than the typical ball park). This sets up for a perfect storm for the Marlins power hitter to get going on Monday.

Kyle Schwarber (+215)

There's not a whole lot of analysis needed on this one.

Kyle Schwarber has faced New York Mets starting pitcher Taijuan Walker 10 times in his career. He has five hits. All five have left the yard.

Sure, it may end up being a popular, and potentially fadeable play, but we're talking about home run props here. Schwarber is also projected, via Statcast to have an xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) of .464 (league average is .320) and has also taken three walks so far with just one punch out. He's seeing the ball exceptionally well and already sees it like a beach ball out of Walker's hands.

Even though it's more than reasonable to expect these numbers to come back to earth, sometimes you just let the stats, like an OPS of 2.545, speak for themselves.

Follow along with our updated Daily Dinger record for the season HERE

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