The John Deere Classic Power Rankings: The 10 Best Golfers at TPC Deere Run
By Todd Moser
Last week, our +6000 longshot Cam Davis gave us our 11th outright win and fourth in a row by winning The Rocket Mortgage Classic. I hope readers have been tailing during this winning streak.
Let’s keep the streak going with this week’s PGA Tour stop in Silvis, Illinois home of the John Deere Classic. Once again, as expected, the field is very light this week. Extending the winning streak will be a big challenge as I think the winner could very well be a longshot.
The Top Five favorites this week are Sungjae Im +1200, Sepp Straka +1600, Aaron Rai +1800, Davis Thompson +2200, Denny McCarthy +2200, and Jordan Spieth +2200. Similar to last week, the players must go low as winning scores typically finish at least -20.
I’m going with last week’s hunch that the winner just might recapture some lost glory by winning the same tournament a second (or even a third) time. We have five such candidates.
The John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run Power Rankings
10. Jason Day +4000
I had to go all the way back to years 2008-2011 to see if Day had ever played this event. He recorded two T-15 finishes in 2009 and 2010, so he checks the box of course track record. He also checks the box for good pot odds at +4000.
As for his season, he’s underachieved with only a season best T-4 at The Well Fargo, and he hasn’t done much since; however, the odds and talent level are too good to pass up.
9. Seamus Power +4500
Power’s on-course anger most often gets the best of him. He has a little Tyrell Hatton in him. If he can keep it mentally together, he has a shot here. He has a T-13 finish last year and a T-8 in 2021 plus a T-16 in 2018.
This year he has eight Top 31 finishes with a season best T-12 at Harbour Town. He finished T-20 in his last event at The Travelers.
8. JT Poston +2800
I’m backing Mr. Poston once again. He is one of the five on our list that has won here. He did that in 2022 and followed it up with a T-6 last year.
He has finished T-11 or better in six events this year. His last quality start was back in May with a T-22 at The Memorial. Known for his putting, he ranks 33rd in putting average and 29th in birdie average.
7. Sepp Straka +1600
Straka is the defending champ here after last year’s 21-under winning score. I’m not a huge fan of backing defending champs due to odds against, but he is the highest ranked player in the field coming in at 24th in the OWGR rankings.
6. Nick Dunlap +3300
We had Dunlap on our longshot list last week at +6600, and he was in contention until a final round 71 sent him back to a T-10 finish. I’m going to take another shot with him in a tournament that requires low scoring. He’s proved he can go low as he shot 29-under in winning The Amex earlier this year.
5. Maverick McNealy +2500
Like Dunlap, I am also going back-to-back with McNealy although he only finished T-44 last week. He has three Top 10 finishes this year and ranks 10th in total strokes gained and fourth in scoring average. At Deere Run he has a T-8 finish in 2022 and a T-18 in 2021.
4. Denny McCarthy +2200
It is hard to believe this guy has not won yet. He’s been close having lost in a playoff at The Texas Open after shooting 20-under.
He’s averaged a T-32 finish in his last four starts so not great but not bad either. He’s played well here having back-to-back T-6s for the past two years. He is also known for his putting and currently ranks second in strokes gained putting, fifth in putting average, first in putts per round, and first in on-putt percentage.
3. Jordan Spieth +2200
Where have you gone, Jordan Spieth? Here’s hoping a course you’ve had success at can bring you back to the forefront. He won here as a 19-year-old in 2013 and followed it up with another win in 2015. I’m hoping he pulls a “Cam Davis” and finds his old form on a course he likes.
2. Sungjae Im +1200
Im is a popular pick to win this week. He certainly should contend with so many close calls recently. He has four Top 10s in his last six starts including his last start at The Travelers where he finished 20-under and a tie for third.
His best finish here is a T-26 in 2018. He probably has the best all-around game in the field. He ranks 40th in total strokes gained, 27th in strokes gained off the tee, and 38th in putts per round.
1. Michael Kim +9000
As Seinfeld’s David Puddy would say, “Yeah, that’s right.” Kim is our fourth prior winner here having won in 2018 with an amazing 27-under score. He has four Top 20s in his last seven starts, and it would have been five if not for a final round 75 last week. He ranks 31st in GIR, 23rd in putting average, 33rd in scoring average, and third in birdie average. I think this column may go national if he happens to win.
Longshot Plays at The John Deere Classic
This week, I’m looking at longshots who are at least +6500 and who I think have some really good pot odds.
Adam Schenk +6600
Schenk makes our list due to his success at Deere Run. He finished T-4 here last year and in 2021 and T-6 in 2019. He plays his best golf in these summer months.
Brendon Todd +9000
Todd’s known for his accuracy off the tee. He currently ranks 20th in driving accuracy. He’s also a decent putter. He ranks 41st in putting average, 29th in putts per round, and 20th in one-putt percentage. He finished in a tie for second here last year.
Chris Gotterup +125000
This young gun broke through by winning the Myrtle Beach Classic at 22-under in May. He hasn’t done much since then, but he did finish T-4 here in 2022 and hits the ball a long way. He’s ranked sixth in driving distance. I think many have forgotten about him. Not me.
Alex Smalley +125000
This is my first time backing Smalley. He finished T-2 last year here and T-16 in 2022. This year on tour, he has three Top 20s with a season best T-6 in Punta Cana. Tread lightly, but it’s worth a pancake bet.
Ryan Moore +12500
Moore represents the last of the five former winners here. He won back in 2016 and finished second in 2021. He hasn’t done much this year, but once again, I’m hoping some magic comes back to a course he’s had prior success.
Harry Higgs +15000
Higgs most recently won back-to-back events on the Korn Ferry Tour, so he is in good form. This is as long as a longshot can get. It’s worth a pancake wager.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.