The Masters Tournament Longshots and First Round Leader Best Bets

In this article, I follow up my Power Ranking Best Bests with some weather-related longshots and first round leader (FRL) best bets.
Brooks Koepka - The Masters - Preview Day Two
Brooks Koepka - The Masters - Preview Day Two / Warren Little/GettyImages

Be forewarned. I am relying on the weatherman for this article. The forecast for Augusta on Thursday morning is dreadful with wind and rain covering the course until roughly 1 PM. As a result, HUGE advantage to the late pack, so my picks are solely from the late pack who should also get favorable weather early Friday morning.  An interruption of play due to weather would pretty much crash these picks.

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The Masters at Augusta National Longshot Best Bets

Shane Lowry +4500

Tee time 12: 24 PM. Lowry’s last four finishes at The Masters are T-16, T-3, T-21, and T-25.  He has played well this year but hasn’t finished off 54-hole leads.  Course track record, form, and favorable tee time could be the right formula.

Jason Day +6600

Tee time 1:24 PM. Day has three Top five finishes here including a T-2 in 2011 and a solo third in 2013. Combined with his favorable tee time and current odds, he is a steal at 66:1.

Patrick Reed +6600

Tee time 12:48 PM. We all know Reed is the 2018 champion here, but he also has three other Top 10s here including last year’s T-4.  He played fairly well last week at Doral. Like Day, he’s a steal at 66:1.

The Masters at Augusta National First Round Leader (FRL) Best Bets

Patrick Reed +5500

See above.

Brooks Koepka +2200

Tee time 1:36 PM. Last year’s 54-hole leader comes into this week with a new putter, a new baby, and the same old determination. To go along with his runner-up finish last year, he also finished second to Tiger Woods in 2019 and finished T-7 in 2020 and T-11 in 2017. His odds aren’t great for FRL, but he’s a good bet to be the leader after round one.

Jordan Spieth +2500

Tee time 1:48 PM. Spieth could shoot 65 or 75, who knows with this guy? The 2015 champ has plenty of good finishes here including five other Top Fives! Playing in favorable conditions could easily result in leading the first round IF he can keep the double bogeys off the card.

Ludvig Aberg +2800

Tee time 1:48 PM. The next big thing is playing his first Masters but given his favorable tee time and A+ game, he could go low without the early pressure.

Dustin Johnson +4000

Tee time 2:00 PM. DJ and Reed have a lot in common. Both are Masters champs, both are playing on the LIV Tour, both have late tee times, and both have favorable odds. The 2020 champ has three other Top 10 finishes including a T-2 in 2019 and a T-4 in 2016.

Collin Morikawa +4500

Tee time 2:00 PM. He is not in the best of form coming into this week, but he has two Top 10 finishes in his four starts here including a T-10 last year and a solo fifth in 2022. He has the last tee time which should lead to the best of scoring conditions.

Sam Burns +5000

Tee time 1:12 PM. Burns opened last year’s Masters with a 68 before finishing T-29. He is a guy who can go low and has a favorable tee time.

Adam Scott +6600

Tee time 1:12 PM. The 2013 champ has been playing well this year. He has three other Top 10s here including a T-2 in 2011 and a T-9 in 2017. He opened last year with a 68. These are sneaky good odds and worth a pancake bet.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.