The Memorial Power Rankings: The 10 Best Golfers at Muirfield Village
By Todd Moser
This week, the PGA Tour brings us another signature event at Jack Nicklaus’ Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village. The Memorial represents the last opportunity for the field to get their collective games in shape for next week’s U.S. Open at Pinehurst.
The big guns are in the field for the huge $20 million purse. In amongst the usual favorites, we will try to carve out some outliers to bet on. Last year’s finishing score was only -7, and I suspect the course will play similarly as a tough but fair preparation course for next week’s U.S. Open.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
The Memorial at Muirfield Village Power Rankings
10. Ludvig Aberg +2200
The wunderkind out of Texas Tech via Sweden can’t be left off a Top 10 despite not having played Muirfield before. He’s shown he can show up at the big events. He finished second at The Masters, eighth at The Players, and second at the elevated AT&T Pebble Beach.
He ranks ninth in total strokes gained (SG), 14th in SG off the tee, 17th in SG on approach, third in total driving, 20th in GIR. He does rank 73rd in SG putting but 14th in scoring average.
9. Hideki Matsuyama +4000
Matsuyama has a good course history here. He won in 2014, has two Top 5s, and two Top 16s including a T-16 last year. He has three Top 10s this year including a win at The Genesis. He ranks seventh in total SG, 43rd in SG off the tee, 29th in SG on approach, 37th in GIR, but a woeful 144th in SG putting.
8. Billy Horschel +6600
Horschel has had a nice comeback year. He picked up a win at Puntacana and has three other Top 10s including a T-8 at The PGA. He also won this event in 2022 and has four other Top 15s here. Unlike a lot of guys this year, BillyHo can putt. He ranks seventh in SG putting to go along with 10th in total strokes gained. If he has a decent week on approach, (currently ranked 101 in SG on approach) we should see him on the leaderboard come Sunday.
7. Xander Schauffele +900
There are arguably five or six obvious picks this week and this is certainly one of them. X has been basking in the glory of winning his first major (PGA) but hasn’t played since. That three-week layoff has me ranking him lower than perhaps expected. At Jack’s house, X has finished no worse than T-24 (last year) in his last five events here. Of all the major stat categories, his ‘worst’ is 28th in SG putting. It’s hard to go against that kind of game.
6. Jordan Spieth +5000
Despite his weekly failures, I can’t keep this guy off my list.
Perhaps there’s too much reliance on past performance and history rather than current form. Spieth has a history here. In eight of his last finishes, his worst is a T-19 way back in 2014. Last year he finished T-5. He does have three Top 10 finishes this year but has been erratic and hasn’t played well in the big events either. He missed the cut at The Players and The Masters and finished T-43 at the PGA. His stats are good. He ranks 27th in total SG, 13th in SG off the tee, and 49th in putting. However, he only ranks 96th in GIR and 128th in SG on approach.
If I could sum up his season, I’d say to look at his bogey avoidance stat where he ranks 103rd.
5. Collin Morikawa +1400
Morikawa was in contention here last year before withdrawing with an injury. He also lost in a playoff to Patrick Cantlay in 2021 and he won a post-COVID event on this course in 2020. He has four Top 5s this year but no wins. He has finished fourth and T-4 in his last two events. He’s got all the stats. 14th in total SG, 16th in SG off the tee, second in driving accuracy, 7th in putting average. On the other hand, he ranks 105th in GIR, 71st in SG on approach, and most importantly, 135th in final round scoring average.
4. Rory McIlroy +1000
Last week, he almost won again before finishing T-4. Prior to that, a T-12 at the PGA and two wins. Rory has three Top 10s here including a T-7 last year. His worst stat in the 20 major categories is a 47th in sand save percentage. Everything is top notch.
Baring something unforeseen, he should be on the leaderboard on the back nine on Sunday.
3. Scottie Scheffler +400
Scottie. Rory. Xander. There’s not much more you can detail about these guys. I mean, four wins, two seconds, and five other Top 10s. Scottie has two third place finishes here in 2023 and 2021. I still think he’s not quite over the PGA police mess in Louisville which is why I don’t have him number one, but it won’t surprise me a bit if World Number One wins again.
2. Patrick Cantlay +2800
I think Cantlay gets this week’s horse for course award with two wins here in 2019 and 2021 to go along with a T-3 in 2022 and a solo fourth in 2018. Like Spieth and Morikawa, PC has not won this year and only has two Top 5s. The last time we saw him, he finished T-53 at The PGA. What’s holding him back? Let’s take a look. He ranks 146th in GIR, 157th in proximity to the hole, 122nd in SG on approach, and 168th in final round scoring average. That’ll do it. The time to turn around his season starts this week.
1. Viktor Hovland +1600
Rarely, if ever, do I pick a defending champion to win the following year. The odds are simply against it. And yet, I think the “old” Hovland is back now that he went back to his old swing coach. That coaching change resulted in a solo third at the PGA. Somewhere along the way, he not only lost his swing but also his newly refined short game which propelled him to winning the 2023 FedEx Cup. This year, he ranks 149th in scrambling, 160th in sand saves, and 171st in scrambling from the rough. Hopefully, his newly found confidence can restore his short game to what it was last year.
Longshot Plays at The Memorial
We are not going too far off the grid this week as I suspect the cream will rise to the top in this Signature Event.
Sam Burns +4500
Is Burns back? After having a baby, he missed three cuts out of five tournaments before a solid T-10 last week. Last year here, he finished T-16. He ranks 29th in total SG, 32nd in SG off the tee, 45th in SG on approach, 54th in SG putting, 18th in scoring average, and eight in birdie average. Like others on our list, he is struggling in final rounds with a current ranking of only 125th in final round scoring average. I like the pot odds we are getting on him this week.
Sahith Theegala +4500
Theegala has played this event twice and has a T-5 in 2022. He’s had many near misses this year with five Top Fives including two solo seconds. He finished T-12 at The PGA and T-9 at The Players, and one of those solo seconds was at the elevated RBC Heritage. He’s got the complete game. He ranks sixth in total SG, 22nd in SG off the tee, 30th in SG on approach, and 13th in SG putting. For Sahith, it’s the third round that’s been holding him back with a round three scoring average ranking of 148. He also has some nice odds this week.
Matt Fitzpatrick +5000
Fitzpatrick has had success here having finished third in 2020 and T-9 last year. He has five Top 15s this year including a solo fifth at The Players. He finished T-22 at The Masters but missed the cut at The PGA. He ranks ninth in total driving, 86th in GIR, 88th in SG on approach and 50th in SG putting. Like Theegala, he is struggling in round 3 with a ranking of only 162nd.
Shane Lowry +5500
This week, we find the popular Irishman at +5500.
That alone is hard to pass up. His form is good. He contended at the PGA before finishing T-6. He won with Rory at the Zurich and last week finished T-33. At The Memorial, he has three Top 16s including a T-16 last year and a T-6 in 2021. For Lowry, it’s all about the putting. He ranks 25th in total SG but only 125th in SG in putting and 156th in putts per round. If he can have a good final round (currently ranked 157th) he could pull off the win.
First Round Leader (FRL) Plays at The Memorial
For some small pancake bets, here are the guys I like as potential FRLs with their current first round scoring average ranking in parenthesis, and all of whom have early morning tee times.
Xander Schauffele (1) +1400
Patrick Cantlay (2) +2800
Sahith Theegala (4) +3300
Scottie Scheffler (5) +1000
Cam Davis (9) +10000
Shane Lowry (12) +5000
Ben An (14) +4000
Davis Thompson (22) +8000
Cam Young (23) +4500
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.