The Memorial Tournament (2024) Event Preview, Odds and Best Bets

As we approach the U.S. Open, the third major of the year, all eyes are on the Memorial Tournament at the iconic Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. This historic venue, designed by Jack Nicklaus and opened in 1974, has a rich golfing heritage. It hosted its first Memorial Tournament in 1976 and is the only course to have hosted the Ryder Cup, Presidents Cup, and Solheim Cup in its history.

Muirfield Village has always been renowned for its formidable challenges. In his quest to keep pace with the increasing distances golfers add, Nicklaus has consistently updated the course.

The most recent renovation, completed in 2020, saw the construction of 10 new tee boxes and a complete rebuild of the 15th hole. This added approximately 100 yards to the course, extending further by 40 yards in 2023 with lengthening holes 16 and 17.

Muirfield Village Golf Club Features

Muirfield Village is a challenging 7,569-yard par-72 track that demands precision and skill. It's the fifth-longest and second-toughest course played annually on the PGA Tour.

The course's unique features, such as the narrowing fairways as you move away from the tee box, the four-inch-long penal Kentucky Bluegrass rough, and the fifth-smallest greens played on tour each year, contribute to its reputation as a challenging course.

Every hole at Muirfield Village is a challenge. Since the renovation, the four par 5s have ranked the toughest of any set played on tour annually. The course does not have a par four that plays under par, and all four par 3s are north of 180 yards, with three of the four playing over 200 yards.

With the course being so challenging, this event is typically dominated by the best golfers in the world. In the last five years, we have seen Patrick Cantlay win twice, Jon Rahm and Billy Horshel win in 2020 and 2022, and Viktor Hovland, the defending champion, win this event last year at -7. Looking further back, we saw Tiger Woods win this event five times between 1999 and 2010.

All this shows that the extreme challenge Muirfield Village presents favors the top golfers in the world, which is why this event was selected as one of the PGA Tour's eight signature events.

The Memorial Tournament Field

In years past, this event has been an invitational event with a 120-player field. However, with the Memorial Tournament being selected as one of the eight signature events, this will be the first time this event will be played with a small 73-player field.

This signature event will feature every golfer in the top 25 world rankings, including world No.1 Scottie Scheffler Xander Schauffele, who is coming off a win at the PGA Championship, Rory McIlroy, who has two event wins and a top-five finish in his last four starts on tour, a two-time champion at Muirfield Village Patrick Cantlay, and defending champion Viktor Hovland.

The only player who turned down an invitation to this event was Robert MacIntyre, the winner of last week's RBC Canadian Open.

Outside of that, we will see the 73 best golfers on the PGA Tour go at it this weekend in an event with a 20 million dollar prize pool, with a four million dollar cut for the winner. Even though it is a small field, there will still be a cut after 36 holes, with the top 50 golfers and anyone within 10 strokes of the leading making it to the weekend.

Memorial Tournament Key Stats

Off-The-Tee:

• Driving accuracy percentage
• Good drive percentage
• Distance from the edge of the fairway

Despite the fairways being fairly wide at an average of 32 yards in width, this course ranks as the toughest to play when hitting out of the rough. With water in play of 12 holes and four-inch penal rough, there will be a significant emphasis on keeping the ball in the fairway this week.

With the course being over 7,500 yards, distance will be a huge advantage that allows players to attack these greens with higher-lofted clubs. However, with the fairways tightening up and well-placed bunkers surrounding landing zones, this advantage can be mitigated to a certain extent. But again, the key here will be keeping the ball in the short grass, as 32 of the top 35 players have gained on the field in good drive percentage over the last three years at this event.

Approach:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Proximity To The Hole
• Proximity 175+ Yards
• Greens in regulation 175+ Yards

Muirfield is one of the most challenging courses for gaining strokes on approach. The second shot is imperative in this course, between the firm, quick greens and tiny greens. Of the 12 holes with water on them, in 11 of those holes, the water comes into play on the approach shot. In addition, these greens have a ton of undulation, which creates a significant priority for hitting the right section of the green and trying to leave the ball below the hole.

Last year, players only hit the green on 52% of approaches and 49% of approaches were hit from outside of +175 yards. Players in contention coming down the stretch this weekend will have to be proficient from outside of 175. They will have to be well above the field average in greens in regulation.

Around The Green and Putting

• Scrambling
• Bogey Avoidance
• SG: Around The Green

At Muirfield Village this weekend, there will be more emphasis on playing around the green rather than on the green. The speed and undulation of these greens force golfers to make a lot of defensive putts, which somewhat evens out the advantage some of the better putters may have on the greens.

Over the last 10 years, this course has ranked as one of the toughest on tour to gain strokes around the green. The thick, rough, and deep greenside bunkers create all kinds of trouble for players who miss the green with their approach shot. With the low winning score at this event, players who rank well in scrambling and bogey avoidance will have a significant advantage this weekend at the Memorial Tournament.

The Memorial Tournament Best Bets

• Collin Morikawa Top 10 Finish (+105) Outright (+1400)

Morikawa struggled to start the 2024 PGA Tour season. Still, since the Master's in April, he has posted four top-10 finishes in his last six events. Morikawa has had a ton of success on this course, winning the event in 2020, the first time it was played due to a COVID cancellation, and then finishing second in 2021.

This course perfectly sets up for Morikawa, a guy who loves to hit a power fade off the tee and hits high, soft-landed iron shots. Morikawa has also been amazing off-the-tee, ranking No. 1 in the field in driver accuracy over the last three months and the previous year and ranking No. 2 in good drive percentage over those same two stretches of time.

Morikawa is one of the most boring golfers on tour, an excellent asset at a course like Muirfield Village Golf Club.

• Russell Henley Top 20 Finish (+115) Outright (+5000)

Although the results don't always show, Henley is one of the best ball strikers on tour. Over the last 12 months in this field, he has ranked seventh in strokes gained on approach, second in driving accuracy, fourth in good drive percentage, and sixth in scrambling percentage.

This ball-striking ability has helped Henley succeed recently. He has had three top-20 finishes in his last five starts and two top-20 finishes in his previous three trips to the Memorial Tournament. I bet he has another good weekend here, as he ranks ninth in the field in strokes gained tee-to-green on very long courses over the last two years.

• Si Woo Kim Top 20 Finish (+1500) Outright (+6000)

This guy is a phenomenal ball striker week in and week out but is often let down by his putter. However, since the renovation of Muirfield Village in 2020, this course has become one of the easiest courses for gaining strokes putting on tour, allowing Kim a ton of success at this venue.

Kim has finished inside the top 20 at this event for four straight years and has gained strokes putting at Muirfield in five of his last six trips to this event. More recently, Kim has come off two rough starts at the Charles Schwab Challenge and the PGA Championship but has still finished in the top 20 in five of his last eight starts this season.

During the previous three months of golfers in this field, Kim ranked seventh in strokes gained on approach, eighth in driving accuracy and 12th in good drive percentage. His ball-striking ability should carry him to another good finish this weekend at a course he is very familiar with.

The Memorial Tournament Nationality Prop Bets

• Corey Conners Top Canadian Finisher (+200)

The Group: Mackenzie Hughes (+360) / Adam Hadwin (+500) / Taylor Pendrith (+550) / Adam Svennson (+600) / Nick Taylor (+800)

Conners is by far the most consistent ball striker in this group; over the last 12 months, he ranks third in the field in strokes gained on approach, and in the previous three months, he ranks second in that same stat. The other five golfers in this group rank outside the top 29 in this field in strokes gained on approach over the last three months.

This trend of Conners being a more consistent ball striker continues when you dive into off-the-tee stats. Conners also ranks fourth in the field in strokes gained tee-to-green over the last two years on very long courses, whereas the rest of the players in this group rank outside the top 39.

Finally, Conners has had much more success than the rest of the golfers in this group in harsh scoring conditions, ranking ninth in strokes gained tee-to-green over the last two years in "very difficult" scoring conditions as opposed to his competitors in this group who rank outside the top 55 in the field.

Conners finished as the top Canadian Finisher last weekend at the RBC Canadian Open and the PGA Championship, the other most recent event he played. I bet that he does it for a third straight week.

The Memorial Tournament Props

• Will there be a playoff? - Yes (+400)

Historically, this event has not gone to a playoff all too often. But, in the last 10 years, the winner of the Memorial Tournament has been decided by playoff hole six times.

More recently, since the course's makeover in 2020, this event has come down to playoff holes in two of the four three years since the renovation. With this being a signature event on the PGA Tour, having all the best golfers in the field in attendance and the low-scoring nature of this course, there is a good chance we see this come down to extra holes on Sunday again this year. I am risking 0.25u on this prop to win 1.00u.

That wraps up my full betting card for this weekend, If I add any more picks or matchups I will be posting them on Twitter where I have also posted all of the data points I have used to make this weeks bets.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.